Thursday, July 30, 2009

How I kick arse on Covestor!

Last year, I talked about Covestor and why it may become the future of how investors and traders verify their claims of how good they are. Go ahead, spend a few minutes to read the post HERE. I joined in July of 2008 as 'geccobite' (which I no longer use and is closed) in favor of my current account that is the same name as my website. It was basically a test account of that I traded but did not totally focus on it, since my other (main) account is my bread and butter and therefore required most of my time. Covestor says I have a -16% return since inception. On the surface, it would appear as though I suck badly as a guru. This is based ONLY on equities trading, without considering cash holdings. That distinction is very important to understand. In my opinion, money management is the most important element of stock trading and must always be considered, because in the real world, real returns are measured with cash inclusion. When Covestor measures and ranks traders, it does NOT consider cash holdings; hence it doesn't consider money management. For example, if you use 10% of your money and buy a stock and that stock goes up 100%, your real return is actually 10%, but Covestor sees as though you gained 100% in your entire portfolio! That's why good penny stock traders rank very high on Covestor, with ridiculously misleading returns. If you look at the top rankings list HERE, what you will see is most traders on the top 100 list are actually penny stock traders, which in reality is not very accurate IF YOU CONSIDER CASH POSITIONS. Here's what I said in the previous posting regarding Covestor:

Covestor does have some issues, however, that probably needs to be addressed. One major one I find is that it doesn't consider cash at hand in their calculations. So if you make one trade on one stock only, for instance, with 10% of your money, Covestor sees it as though you put in 100% of your money. This gives successful penny stock players somewhat of an unfair advantage in the rankings, if anyone cares about rankings at all. In real world situations, a trader can put in 100% of his money into something like GOOG (actually, that is quite typical if you're trading GOOG), but rarely does anyone put 100% of their trading account in one (or even two or three) penny stocks. Yet, this is how Covestor makes the calculations. The nature of penny stocks is that they move much more percentage-wise than bigger stocks. This is the reason many of the good penny stock players are way up in the rankings, with massive annualized returns. I'm sure Covestor is on its way of making changes to this by considering cash positions.


Good news, Covestor now considers cash holdings! To see this, let's go back to my geccobite page (screenshot below is the only thing left of the account). Look at the 'Performance' box by scrolling down. Under the word 'Performance', you should see a pulldown box. The default data is "geccobite equities", which says I have a -16% return since inception. Now, go to the pulldown box and choose "geccobite equities & cash". Here's what you should see:


Follow me and see if I'm gonna kick arse again this year.

Get my system and learn how to do it yourself.

FSLR earnings is tonite.

--Sunpower panels

SPWRA and STP are the stocks to watch. SPWRA could explode to the upside in a big way if FSLR says anything that could aid Sunpower.

SPWRA a thing of beauty, especially above 33.

AMZN is the next Walmart?

AMZN lost over 10 dollars after earnings, though good, failed to impress Wallstreet.

When it comes to online shopping, AMZN is the only dominant retailer on the web. The other is DELL, who specializes in computers and electronics.

There is a great future for Jeff Bezos and his Amazon.

I'm buying AMZN under 85, premarket. I think this stock gets a short term boost to the upside.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Putting a swing short on the SPY

at around 97.5 .

I'm not really sure if we take out SPX 980 in the near future but I think shorting right here gives a nice risk-reward.

Today's close should be very telling.

Monday, July 27, 2009

New price


...for the Beanieville Money Management System is now $995.

I believe I've said several times already that there is a good chance the price would be raised once the recession is over. Looking at the charts and fundamentals data, I think the recession is behind us and that a new bull market is coming.


http://traderbeanie.com

So You Think I'm Crazy, Right?


Jim Cramer is now the second person I know (the first being myself) calling for a multi-year bull market! I am no longer alone. :)


Here's a summary of what Cramer said today in his MadMoney show:


Tech Rally

What's the takeaway from the Nasdaq's record setting 12-day winning streak? Cramer said if history is your guide, it's a multi-year tech rally!

Cramer compared the index's recent run with similar moves in 1992 and 1996. He said each of these multi-year moves started with new secular growth trends, and a big 11-day plus rally.

Cramer said in 1992, the tech rally was sparked by the notion of a computer on every desk. Lead by Microsoft (MSFT Quote) and Intel (INTL Quote), Cramer said the 13-day rally saw a gain of 13%, but continued for a 27.7% gain two years later.

In 1996, the Internet was becoming all the rage, with hot IPOs from companies like Netscape and Yahoo! (YHOO Quote). The Nasdaq's 11-day rally then saw a gain of 7%, but then continued to see it up 37% just one year later.

Cramer said the same thing is happening today, as the mobile Internet and smartphone revolution is upon us. He said the recent 12-day rally that ended last week saw the average up 13%, but he expects this is just the beginning.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Wanna Read Tomorrow's Newspaper Today? Follow Goldman Sachs!


Goldman Sachs sets pace in new 'green' marketplace

Greenwire, 24 July 2006 - Vanity Fair has dubbed green the new black. While that may be fine on fashionable Madison Avenue, black still means profit and it still rules on Wall Street.

But one venerable investment bank is charting a greener course to the bottom line.

The Goldman Sachs Group, which announced what many regard as the banking industry's most aggressive environmental policy less than a year ago, has invested more than $1.5 billion in renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, according to a senior company official. And with big plans to become a major liquidity provider in emerging energy markets, reduce its carbon footprint and support a federal emissions cap-and-trade regime, Goldman appears to be just warming up.

Wall Street is watching closely just how far Goldman's new Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein will take the world's largest investment bank in an unprecedented green direction. While environmental and free-market advocates are divided whether Goldman should stay the course and whether other investment banks should follow, Goldman's most recent investments are clearly in the black.

For the second quarter that ended May 26, Goldman reported net earnings of $2.3 billion, up from $865 million in the year-earlier quarter, but off slightly from a record first quarter.

The strong performance this year puts Goldman first in worldwide announced and completed mergers and acquisitions; equity and related offerings; public common stock offerings and initial public offerings, according the New York-based firm.

Investment banking produced net revenues of more than $1.5 billion last quarter, Goldman's best quarterly performance in six years, according to the company's balance sheet. Net revenues from the firm's Trading and Principal Investments unit, which reflects a slew of investments in alternative energy companies, were $6.96 billion -- up a robust $4.15 billion from the year-earlier quarter.


.....article continued here

Why Solar When Solar Is So Expensive?

I understand that solar is really expensive relative to the other fuels, but it is also growing up exponentially in the technological sense. Coal is almost as cheap as oil but coal is already used everywhere and is also a depleting resource like oil. Nuclear is viable and supplies over 75% of France's electricity. But people are scared of nuclear energy. It is possible that nuclear will make a comeback if people can be convinced it's safer now. In that event, nuclear energy is a much better investment than solar and others.

Solar will not have a huge overall impact on our energy needs, but because they come from a tiny percentage of usage, their RELATIVE growth rate is huge; hence, they make the best investments. Also, solar, because it is mainly a technological energy source, has the MOST potential for improvement. Obviously, if solar cost (due to better technology and lower manufacturing costs) becomes comparable to nuclear, coal and fossil, it is by far the best energy source to use. But solar isn't there yet.

The reasons stated above are why investors are raving about solar over others.

My Boldest Market Call Ever

I'm gonna make the boldest call i've ever made in all my years of trading.

We are still in a secular BULL market that started in the 1980's. We are not in a secular bear market from 2000 that most people think. Only a handful of people, me included, believe we're still in a secular bull market and that the last two years were merely a cyclical bear within a secular bull market.

I think of the last 2 years as the best opportunity to position ourselves for the Grand Duke of Bull Market that is coming. The bulls can make 1000's of percent returns if they're positioned for the right stocks. The bears, no matter the kind of gains they made the last two years, will suffer miserably. It only takes a 50% loss (if they've been able to escape the brutal rally since March) for them to be severely handicapped. The bears could have called the crash of last year and made some money, but that is only a temporary battle... the WAR is coming and I believe the bulls will hold the hand of the Royal Flush. Goldman Sachs is brewing something and it is not supportive of the bears. I think they're brewing Jeremy Siegel's Dow 36,000.

Be prepared, if you believe me.

Wanna see what Goldman Sachs is brewing? Click HERE.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

The Game Is Over

As a bull, i'm not worried about any possible pullback. We got the bears by the balls. Any pullback would only set us up for another huge rally in the Fall.

If we clear Dow 9100, the next measured move would be to Dow 11500 from the neck break of the inverted head n' shoulders. See HERE.

Dow 11500 is very close to my target of Dow 12,000 for this year. I would even contend that if we clear Dow 12,000 it proves that we're still in a secular bull market (that started in the 1980's), not a secular bear market (from 2000) that many people believe. Also, if we clear Dow 12,000 for good, we could be headed to Jeremy Siegel's Dow 36,000 probably within the next decade. Obviously, that would require very novel disruptive technologies to lead the way. Technological advances are coming at such a parabolic pace that it's difficult to imagine that a disruptive technology isn't coming soon. I surmise it could be in solar or neat things like wireless electricity.

The Solar Revolution Is Here?

Next week is when the solar master of the universe - FSLR - reports. It will be companies like FSLR that will drive the next mega bull market and also driving the bears insane. The only times we ever have legitimate massive bull market is due to DISRUPTIVE technologies (like the internet). Bears must account for the coming disruptive technologies. It could be solar. It could be wireless electricity. But at the parabolic pace of innovation that is going on, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when you will see those disruptive technologies, and it will be sooner than most people think.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

My last 5 stock picks are all up

AMZN (earnings tonite)

SBUX

ENER

VMW

LM


Take that to the bank! With that said, you're basically on your own now in terms of managing your trades.

Also, instead of emailing me asking about my approach to the market and how I can help you, get it HERE with your recent profits.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Amazon acquires Zappos



I think it's a great fit. Jeff Bezos and his Amazon.com are amazing.

Btw, AMZN announces earnings Thursday after the bell.

What Is Important?


Many traders spend a lifetime chasing things like Technical Analysis. The volumes of books devoted to the subject of TA seems to grow in leaps and bounds every year. Many think that learning to trade the charts is the key to success. Nothing can be further from the truth. While TA can be very helpful, it is actually money management that is what separates the eventual winners from the losers. That's where I come in. Get my advice.

Monday, July 20, 2009

LM beats the street

I bought at around 26.15 area. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

I gotta go now. If you're in, you might want to watch it for a few hours.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

SPX Monthly

We are getting really close to turning out the lights on the bears. I see the worst case scenario is we pull back aggressively (but still above the March low), but the crossing (see the red line 10dayEMA?) will happen.




Here is a recent update of the same chart, by Keith Shepard:




Additionally, we already have the Golden Cross to lend support to the bulls.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

The March low is THE BOTTOM

Looking at the March 2009 decline and subsequent parabolic rise, there is only one conclusion to draw: we really bottomed at march low. That's just how charts work. Not only is this a traditional double bottom (where the second low is lower than the first low) but look at the accompanying hyper volume, hyper magnitude and hyper slope of the March low and bounce.

Sometimes it's easier to assess the situation by flipping the chart upside down. Go ahead, flip this chart upside down either mentally or with a mirror.

If you had the chart upside down, you would certainly be laughing at the bulls for not knowing the bull market is over. Likewise, the bulls are now laughing at the bears for not knowing THE bottom is in and the bear market is over.

An interesting thing has happened with the chartists lately. Many no longer believe the charts. lol. Instead they have become "fundamentalists" and give hundreds of reasons why our economy is doomed.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Bears Hurtin' Lately

"When the tide goes out...we see who's swimming naked."


Trend analyze your stocks.

Many think that learning to trade the charts is the key to success. Nothing can be further from the truth. Money management is what separates the winners from the losers. That's where I come in. Get my advice.

Linda Is One Smart Gal


Dear Beanieville readers...

I have not had the pleasure of meeting as many professional traders as Adam Hewison from Ino has. The good thing is that with the free version of INO TV, you can meet four of the world's top traders and have a front row seat to their seminars for free.

As a regular user of our INO TV service, I am a huge fan of professional trader, Linda Raschke. Honestly, I don't know why I put her in a class of her own among the other many amazing seminar authors.

It could be that she has had continued success in the trading arena for over two decades. It it could be that I am drawn to her superior presentation skills. It could also be that she is a great role model for young women pursuing a career in finance and/or business.

Ok, ok... I wont play the gender card. I am completely aware that over 91% of you individual traders are men. However, no matter what gender you may be you can recognize Linda's trading intellect and appreciate the tips and strategies in her seminar that we present in the complimentary version of INO TV.

"Classic Indicators - Back to the Future"

Besides lecturing to thousands of individual traders in over 18 countries, Linda is a principal trader for several hedge funds and is president of LBR Group, Inc. She was profiled in Jack Schwager's book, "The New Market Wizards," and frequently is featured trader in numerous financial publications and on national radio/television
programs. Currently she is the vice president of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

Self-directed traders have spent big bucks to learn from Linda, but we are offering one of her lectures for absolutely no cost.

She is one of my INO TV personal favorite trading experts and I hope you will become fond of her as well.

Watch her seminar, "Classic Indicators - Back to the Future" today at no cost on INO TV.

click here

Enjoy Linda's Seminar,
Brad S. of Ino.com


Free stock trend analysis

Thursday, July 16, 2009

UNG is a great buy here



Time to go all-in; if you want to go all-in on one stock this is the one. No options please.

Time to own VMW for the long haul


To tell you the truth, I've followed VMW since it went ipo two years ago and still don't know how the technology works. But having spoken to several IT persons who rave about their product, I decided to put it on radar.

Recent news of a Google engineering director, who originally came from Microsoft, having taken a position in the company and a recent upgrade makes me want to own this one right now for the long run. I will start accumulating a position today. Earnings is next week and I will finish off the last batch buying right after earnings.

VMW is in a hypergrowth phase and raking in lots of cash. Main competitors include Microsoft and Oracle, but VMW still holds 80% market share.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

ENER looking good at these levels

I bought some at 12.8 area.

I think this stock has bottomed and is ready to move higher from here.

$15 first target.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

2008 Performance Of The Well-Known


2008 performance numbers of some very well known names:

Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway): -43%
Ken Hebner (CMG Focus Fund) -56%
Harry Lange (Fidelity Magellan): -59%
Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust) -50%
Ken Griffin (Citadel): -44%
Carl Icahn (Icahn Enterprises): -81%
T. Boone Pickens: Down $2 billion since July
Kirk Kerkorian: Down $693 million on his Ford shares alone

Most average folks did even worst with their investments.

It's gonna take a very long long time to get back to breakeven as investors (not that short term trading is any better). There is nothing wrong with investing (or trading), except that you better apply some form of money management to have a fighting chance of making money over the long haul.


I use exclusively this money management system.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Owning Starbucks



SBUX recently formed a Golden Cross, both in the SMAs and EMAs. Don't even know what a Golden Cross is? Well, go read the previous post. I have a position in the stock. I've been a Starbucks (and Seattle Coffee, now a subsiduary of Starbucks) coffee lover for a long time but never really owned the stock for any length of time. I think now is a good time to get invested in this company, especially now that it's become quite a cheap stock.

My entry is @13.55

Earnings is in 2 weeks. Long term hold.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

The 'Golden Cross' And Where Do We Go From Here

In the middle of June, we had the Golden Cross formed, where the 50dayMA crosses above the 200dayMA on the daily. This is an important formation that historically tends to indicate potentially a multi-year trend change. We had a Death Cross (where the 50dayMA crosses below the 200dayMA) that started about 2 years ago, accompanying the severe recession. Now the Death Cross becomes the Golden Cross last month. Some chartists believe that it's not a valid Golden Cross because this present 200dayMA is sloping downwards. Others, and I'm in that camp, believe it is still a valid Golden Cross despite the negative slope.

Minyanville, in this article, believes that the Golden Cross may not be valid and they bring up the 1932-1933 chart to prove it:



Since everyone seems to like to compare what is happening today to what happened in the 1930's, then July 1932 (from the chart above) is equivalent to March 2009. In both instances, a Golden Cross was formed a few months later when the "low" was hit.

Here's the chart of the Dow Jones today:




The first chart (1929-1932) shows that the Golden Cross, due to the declining 200dayMA, actually reversed and became the Death Cross again as the 50dayMA crossed below the 200dayMA. However, a few months later another Golden Cross was formed and that particular one signaled the end of the bear market.

Similarly, I think the same will happen with the second chart (2009) - a Golden Cross reverses into a Death Cross and back to a Golden Cross, ultimately signaling the end of the bear market.

Note that in the first chart (1932-1933), even though the first Golden Cross may have been invalid, the important thing to note is that the July low of 1932 held. For a few months, the market occillated back and forth from Golden Cross to Death Cross and back to Golden Cross, the market ultimately gave back about 68% of the rally from the July 1932 low before beginning a real bull market with the second Golden Cross. So in the strictest sense, the Golden Cross with the negative sloping 200dayMA may not be valid if we use 1932-1933 as template; however, in 1932, it did signal a real bull market was not too far away.

Likewise, last month's Golden Cross may signal a real bull market is not too far away. If 2009 plays out just like 1932-1933, then within the next 3-4 months the Dow Jones will trade sideways until it eventually hits the 68% retracement at about 7400 before the real bull market begins. And on the SPY, it should hit a 68% retracement to around 77 in a few months before really taking off to the upside.


-Beanie

Get ready to buy buy buy ... GOOG

It looks like we're gonna have a decent-sized rally tomorrow, for two reason:

1) Alcoa (AA) just announced and the stock is higher,

but more importantly,

2) you have to be reading my blog for awhile to figure this one.

GOOG can be bought here afterhours right now or sometime early tomorrow. I bought some GOOG afterhours.

Read the first comment of this post for how the market will likely move tomorrow. Get ready to buy stocks with good setup.

Shorted AMGN @ 59.8

stoploss set at about today's high of day (hod).

Monday, July 6, 2009

I am looking to short CME probably tuesday or wednesday

Currently trading @ 296 .

I think this thing goes to 250 as first target. Let's see if it goes higher the next two days. If it shows signs of weakness, I'll enter.

You can buy the Sept 250-270 puts if you like options.

Shorted GOOG

@ 404.8 . I entered 1/2 position for the time being and want to see if the stock moves higher later in the day to give a better entry for the last half position.

The FCX short is working nicely and I want to give out this next one. GOOG could head to 380 area, giving us a 25-30 point move as first target.

If you like options, you can purchase the Sept 360 puts.

A close above 425 area would be worrisome for the shorts.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Shorting FCX on Monday


FCX closed @ 49.7

I'm hoping for a bounce to around 51-52 area this week for a short entry, although we may not get it.

If you like options, which I tend to shy away from, then try the Aug 48 puts.

Initial profit target will be around the 45 area. Any further general market weakness, I might hold to the low 40's. Regardless, taking 1/2 off at 45 area is a good idea.

Stoploss, if you can't take the pain, would be a close above 52.5 area.


Further analyze FCX here

Stopping the insanity!

Saturday, July 4, 2009

No longer posting trades on twitter

It was a fun experiment on twitter while it lasted. For awhile now, several of you readers have asked me through your emails to post trades on my blog instead of twitter. I thought posting at twitter was a lot quicker and easier for me and because many of you guys here are pretty quiet, making me seem like (to the casual observer) that I'm talking to myself everyday. (coo-coo) Lately, however, twitter stock readability has gone down the drain.

From now on, I'll try to post some swing trades for you guys, versus the usual daytrades. It will be in a new post (or within the comments section of a current post if I don't have time, especially when the stock move is too fast).

So... I'm Back!!! (for better or worst. lol)

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Air-Palm


I think PALM is gonna have a huge move tomorrow, likely higher. Watch the direction of the gap, though. It should run in the direction of the gap.