Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Monster Stock Of 2009?

June 30, 2009, 2:19 am
Palm Pre Sales Topped 300,000 In June, Analyst Says
Posted by Eric Savitz


"Channel checks suggest Palm (PALM) Pre sales into the channel in June were above 300,000 units, according to Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder, plus an estimated 70,000 in May. Snyder contends that the company has yet to catch up with demand.

He says start-up problems with manufacturing and uncertainty about initial demand limited the number of phones in stock at launch to about 120,000 units - and that the inventory was sold in a matter of days.

Snyder contends the company is now producing about 15,000 units a day, and likely will ship nearly 1 million phones to Sprint in the first quarter of production, “well above consensus.”

Meanwhile, Snyder asserts that a WCDMA version of the phone “appears imminent,” which he says will mean the company will reach cash flow break even sooner than expected. He thinks the company will launch a WCDMA Pre with Telefonica in September, with volume shipments before the holiday selling season. He adds that a Telefonica launch, combined with Sprint and the already announced planned roll-out by Bell Mobility in Canada, should drive sales above 1 million units a month.

As for the potential for relationships with other U.S. carriers, he contends that the exclusivity arrangement with Sprint only covers the Pre - and not other WebOS devices. He expects a non-Pre WebOS-based device to launch with Verizon in early 2010, and a WebOS-based “Centro like” device with AT&T soon after that.

On Monday, PALM is down 40 cents, or 2.5%, to $15.82. "

Monday, June 29, 2009

HyperInflation?

Hyperinflation or not, we're headed to Dow 36,000 .

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Powerful Stocks

O'Neill of Investors Business Daily (I don't have a subscription with them) says that powerful stocks that give great returns usually have at least 1 of the follow 3 characteristics:

1) New (better) management

2) New (better) product(s)

3) Stock trading at new (yearly) highs


There is a lot of truth in what he's saying. I think you'd also agree with him. It makes sense.

Guess what? PALM has all three of the above characteristics. I think PALM goes alot higher. I am putting an initial target of $30 by year end.



Trend analyze PALM

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

PALM

PALM target raised by Credit Suisse to Outperform from $11 to $18. I like this stock for the long term and have a position. May add more after Thursday, when they announce how their phones are selling and what management plans for the future.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Q & A

I have gotten several emailed questions for awhile regarding how much is needed to start trading. I'll answer it here again, because you might have the same question.


Question:
Hi,

Just read your blog and was wondering if you had time to answer a question. Is it viable to make a $150K+ yearly income from day trading? I am currently an Electrical Engineer with a good understanding of the stock market, margin investing, etc.

I would like to pursue day trading as my next career move, but have not been able to find reliable data on income potential and working capital requirements.

Any realistic data you can provide would be very much appreciated.
Thanks in advance,
Rick



Answer:

Hi Rick,

Most traders will think that you need well over mid six figures to start if 150k is your goal, assuming you're any good. But i think it's an odd thing to say you want to make a certain amount per year. First, you need to see what youre capable off, i.e. what has been your 5 year annualized return?, in order to extrapolate how much you can make and how much you might need to start with. Everybody trades differently, have different risks/tolerances, different approaches, etc. Some are better traders than others. Some approaches (I think mine is the best) are way better than others. Pure daytrading where you're 100% cash by end of day is a difficult way to approach the market, that i can tell you.


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All Roads Lead To Rambus

When Intel (INTC) chose Rambus (RMBS) proprietary RDRAM for their Pentium processor it was due to its superior performance, its disruptive capabilities, and its cutting edge bandwidth architecture. But, it wasn't only its technology that made Rambus disruptive. The IP-only paradigm which Rambus represents was perceived by the DRAM industry (Memory Manufacturers...aka MMs) as a threat to their very existence; thus, the conspiracy to "kill" Rambus. The Rambus legal team engaged those MMs who refused to license Rambus IP in court over time. During the ensuing years (pun intended), the engineers at Rambus pressed ahead with groundbreaking patented inventions.

What will finally trigger a price explosion of Rambus stock? Due to recent exciting litigation news several pundits have pointed in that direction as the most probable instigator of a stock price run-up. Equally compelling are the spectacular technological advancements emanating from Rambus labs. In November of 2007, Rambus formally entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Intel to "explore possibilities for its XDR memory technology". In January of this year, Elpida Memory Inc., Japan's leading DRAM supplier, announced that it would ramp up mass production of Rambus licensed XDR.

The new XDR product features the industry's fastest ultra-high speed of 7.2GHz, which is faster than any GDDR5 memory chip, and provides a data transfer rate of 28.8 Gigabytes per second with a single device, making it an ideal choice for such high-bandwidth, high-performance full HD-capable applications as game consoles, digital televisions and Blu-ray disc recorders.

Elpida is the only extant licensee of XDR other than Samsung, the DRAM gorilla currently embroiled in longstanding litigation with Rambus. In the final lines from Elpida's press release we see the following:

Sample shipments of the new XDR have already started and mass production is scheduled to begin in April 2009.

As a top supplier of XDR DRAM, Elpida continues to specialize in developing high-performance, low-power XDR products.

What will be the application for the mass-produced XDR? Inquiring minds will know very soon. Has Intel decided to go with XDR in its next orbit of technology? The new low power innovations from Rambus may also come into play. At the Japan Rambus Developer Forum at the end of 2007, the Terabyte Initiative (TI) was unveiled promising to deliver an astonishing 1000 GB/s to a single system on Chip. Such Rambus patented discoveries as Flexphase and Dynamic Point-to-Point are incorporated therein.
Rambus continues to expand its hegemony within the world of bandwith architecture. They are moving out so far ahead of JEDEC Standard Setting Organization knockoffs that the industry may have no choice but to adopt the far superior Rambus designs. The jaw-dropping advancements inherent in the Terabyte Initiative offer the most innovative roadmap for high performance solutions of the future.
Rambus technological leadership took another decisive step forward in February of this year with the announcement of its Mobile Memory Initiative (MMI). This design creates a conflation of extremely high bandwidth and low power consumption. Soon mobile devices will be do-it-all devices coupling HD resolution, gaming, high-end graphics, and multimedia. Rambus has come forward with a phenomenal solution. A single DRAM device could offer 17 GB/s (4 wide X 4.3) at an compellingly efficient 2 mW/Gbps. This would enable tremendous power with low battery consumption, exactly the necessary prescription.
Rambus has also successfully implemented an XDR interface using low profile quad flat package. This so-called LQFP is less expensive than the BGA (ball grid array) package. In order to reach full market penetration with XDR, Rambus will offer cost sensitive solutions which still deliver high performance.
While in the past MMs have ripped off Rambus IP, and attempted design-arounds, these powerful newer proprietary discoveries (eg.TI, MMI, and LQPF) may be beyond the reach of such underhanded (and illegal) avenues. Intel knows what SONY,Toshiba, and IBM discovered in their Rambus collaborations on PS3. When it comes to memory bandwidth architecture solutions, all roads lead to Rambus.

source


*Trend analyze RMBS (or any other stocks) here for free

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Sad thing is...

Rambus (RMBS) should have been the first Qualcomm. They were totally ripped off by the chip manufacturers, starting with Infineon - a spinoff of Siemens.

Rambus' opening statement in their court cases.

Rambus' inventions were responsible for the gigantic leap in computer microprocessor/memory speeds we have today.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Correction has already started

Next week is window dressing and maybe we get a rally after more brutality the next 2-3 days, but then again we may not.

We finally took out the 20dayMA yesterday, and that's the first time since mid March:



As you can see, bulls have to be very careful in the short and intermediate term, as we are very close to the 50dayMA and could take it out any day.

My take is that we will eventually fall through the 50dayMA and heads towards SPX 850 as first target this summer. For fibonnacci retracement lovers, SPX 850 represents the 38% retracement level from the beginning of the march rally to the june top.

The problem is, at SPX 850 the 50dayMA line would have already turned downwards and the 20dayMA would have crossed below the 50dayMA. This gives bears significant advantage to take us even lower towards late summer to fall. I am not in the camp that believes we go below SPX 800-850, but you never know.

Please hedge your long portfolio (if you have one) or reduce equity exposure and get rid of margin at this point. Have some cash to buy stocks because they will get cheaper.

It looks like the commodities and things like fertilizers are in trouble here. Any bounce can be shorted. The US dollar looks like it has bottomed and usually moves inversely to commodities. I have UUP july 24.00 and sept 24.00 calls as a hedge to my portfolio. I don't usually trade options (and don't recommend it) but I do buy them once in awhile as hedges. Besides, UUP is such a slow mover you almost have to trade the options. I am also short POT.


*Trend analyze SPX (or any other stock) here for free

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Trading is very easy, kinda like this:

Sunday, June 14, 2009

The Next Qualcomm?

You remember QCOM? It had a monster (nearly 30-bagger) run in 1999 and created many millionaires. QCOM was involved with several lawsuits related to their CDMA technology, currently used in many cellphones. They won several landmark cases and the rest is history. Now QCOM is a huge cash cow that gets royalty via CDMA licenses.

Now we have a similar situation relating to memory chips. Rambus (symbol: RMBS) had found a way to solve the memory bottleneck problems facing computers years ago but they weren't paid royalties for it. In essence, their intellectual property was abused by several unscrupulous chip firms (namely Infineon, Micron, Hynix and Samsung) who conspired to force Rambus into insolvency by litigation, price-fixing and other means. This story spanned across nearly a decade, with Rambus in constant litigation against the conspirators and the FTC. Ultimately, Rambus came out victorious. Now, Rambus, having won some landmark battles, is going on the offensive and suing theses companies for Anti-Trust practices. The court date is scheduled for September of this year, and many believe that Rambus will easily win because of the precedent set by previous cases.

Rambus' intellectual property is used in virtually all electronic products, ranging from computers, HDTVs, servers, printers, digital cameras, camcorders to cellphones. Estimated sales of these products are in the hundreds of billions of dollars. A 2-4% cut for Rambus could mean at least $5 billion dollars a year.

I don't know if Rambus is really going to be the next Qualcomm but they both are in the intellectual property business. I think winning the coming lawsuit in September should open the floodgates for huge price appreciation. This assumes no more surprise in delays. Nearly a decade in litigation already for Rambus. Let's hope all this will be behind them soon, and they get to reap the huge rewards.

Several good articles have been written about the story of Rambus that are worth reading:

- 2009: Rambus' Year to Shine

- Is Rambus the next 27-bagger?

- Rambus - the next big ligitation play

- All roads lead to Rambus

- Rambus will outlive FUD

- Rambus and a Price-Fixing Tale



*Trend analyze RMBS (or any other stocks) here for free

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Saturday, June 13, 2009

Biggest PALM investor Roger McNamee

on Fox Business

Trend analyze PALM here for free

Get the most important book you will ever read about the stock market.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Been buying PALM the last two days

I really like their new ceo, an impressive tech guy from Apple. I think PALM will survive and will eventually be a decent competitor to RIMM, if not AAPL.

This is an investment.


Trend analyze PALM here for free

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Bulls Need To Be Vigilant Of The Coming Correction



We've been rangebound for nearly two weeks now after the inital breakout above the 200dayMA. The 950 area is very strong and significant resistance. If we take that out on a closing basis, we will likely head to SPX 1000-1200. But I have reservations we can break out at this time. It has already been 8 trading sessions where we failed to do so.

Be vigilant and reduce margin please.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Suntech gets 500 MW project

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Solar stocks made gains Tuesday as the companies were lifted by reports that Suntech Power Holding Co. Ltd. (STP) is in talks to build a major solar project in China.

Analysts said other potential factors moving the sector Tuesday are a stronger euro, which tends to boosts solar shares, and gains in crude oil futures. Midday Tuesday, the euro was near its intraday high of $1.4030, as crude oil futures gained 2.2% to $69.60. The stronger euro tends to help the sector since much of the companies' sales are in that currency.

China-based solar stocks led the sector's gains Tuesday, with American depositary shares of Suntech up 7.9% at $18.28, China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (CSUN) up 14% at $5.88 and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (JASO) up 14% at $5.33. The solar sector has gained with the broader market in recent months on hopes the companies will be able to recover soon from a tough first quarter.

A story by a local Chinese media outlet that was widely circulated Tuesday said the Qinghai province of China has signed an agreement with Suntech to construct a 500-megawatt project, which would dwarf most existing solar projects in China.

Analysts said the news could be lifting solar stocks, since it could be an indication that other Chinese provinces will follow suit with additional massive solar projects.

Cowen and Co. analyst Robert Stone told Dow Jones Newswires that the fact that the Qinghai province is in talks to build a large ground-mounted solar project - as opposed to smaller roof-based projects - is an indication that the central government of China could also have similarly large projects in the works.

Suntech spokesman Steve Chadima told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday that the project is in its very early stages, and he couldn't provide an estimate on when the talks would be completed. He said Suntech is aiming for the construction of project to be completed between 2010 and 2012.

He said the company had intended to keep the high-level talks internal for now, but somehow word leaked out in China and then spread across the world.

Chadima said the chances of the project remaining at its current large size are very high, and he added that the deal could be the first step in a much bigger project.

Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson expressed caution about the potential Qinghai deal Tuesday, noting that the two parties still have to agree on key terms, including project financing and the overall size of the project.

Johnson, whose firm has an underperform rating on the solar sector, also expressed skepticism about the overall gains posted by the companies Tuesday.

"This is a very dangerous time to invest in the solar sector - the stocks are moving on rumor and speculation as opposed to fundamentals," Johnson said.

-By Jennifer Hoyt Cummings, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2474; jennifer.cummings@dowjones.com

Getting Horny On this chart

yes, this one.

As solars grow, so will this company.

A super great buy right here, right now.

I think I'll get some afterhours and early tomorrow for a long term hold.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Bears Gone Bullish

Marc Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, believes that Fed printing lots of money will take the market higher.

'The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said.'



Jim Rogers, who has been a vocal bear for a long time now, recently has this to say:

It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,000,000. Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.


So it seems the big bears both believe that the market is headed higher, but through hyperinflation of course. Whether we will have hyperinflation or not, the point is that the market is headed higher. It's hard to be a bear now.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Q&A regarding Beanieville System

Just got several emailed questions similar to the one below. Thought I'll answer that here because the rest of you might have the same question.


Question:

Can you give a bit more details about your system please?

I'm sure you would not expect someone to buy a 400$ product on just this script which does not talk about anything re the system. Why would one not treat this as one more scam in this world of trading scams!

Thanks,
M




Answer:


Most folks have no idea how to approach the stock market, to maximize their returns. This includes money management issues. I address what i think is the best way to approach the market. If you think it's a scam, you have 30 days to return for refund. Also, Paypal protects you in case you're being scammed by me.

You can read more about the system at http://traderbeanie.blogspot.com . All the posts there should give you some ideas what the Beanieville System is all about. I cannot give out more info than that.

Regards,
Beanie

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Friday, June 5, 2009

Gamechanger for SPWRA?

Thursday, June 4, 2009

I got hots for solar...

Watch STP, finally closed above the 200dayMA today. Tomorrow is a chance for confirmation that it can hold above that important moving average.



Also, YGE is being pumped by FastMoney this evening.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

I didn't notice until this morning....

that we had a batwings formation on tuesday. Do you see it? That's why we sold off rather hard today, preceded by a gap down.

Yikes.