FSLR is baby GOOG

I am very confident it will run just like GOOG did. $400 is next stop.

What company do you know of that is growing at a massive pace and raked in $418 million in revenue and $165 million in income last quarter?

If you like growth, this is it - this is for you! The alternative energy revolution is coming and FSLR leads the way.

FSLR closed @ 187

ON CLIMATE CHANGE

VINOD KHOSLA:

"We have to have cap and trade. We don't have a choice. Think of the following. All of you insure your home. The chance of a catastrophic thing happening to your home is some small fraction of 1 percent. When it comes to climate change, experts will argue that the probability of a castastrophic thing happening isn't some fraction of 1 percent, it's whether it's 10 percent or 90 percent. Most people are clustered around that there is is probably an 80 percent chance that a catastrophic thing will happen. If we buy home insurance why shouldn't we buy planet insurance? If you asked me which is the larger risk of 100 million deaths on this planet -- terrorism or climate change? Clearly climate change."

Almost chopped to pieces

playing a choppy market. The first 3 announced daytrades were losers but risk and money management was key. These were smaller trades and with very defined stoplosses for a total loss of -.60 on the SPY. The last trade I made, for a gain of +.75, was more certain and was a bigger position than the first three. Luckily the big opportunity presented itself.

Tomorrow will likely be another choppy day, with a more bullish bias. the last Fed meeting was a strong day; the market rallied before and after the fed. This time, the market is quite overbought in the intermediate term.

Take it easy.

The bulls are back

This is already the worst decade for stock market since the 1920's, inflation adjusted. 5.8% versus 5%.

The bulls are back! All big dips should be bought. At the worst case scenerio, I think we retest the march lows.

Where do we go now?

We're probably due for a pullback starting Friday or next week. Bulls should not get too excited until we cross SPX 860. We've been closing below that for 4 days now, an indication that the market might want to pull back. I think if we go below SPX 840 the next time, we're headed to the low 800. So I would look for a place to short the SPY below 84. Note that SPY is approximately 1/10 of the SPX. Not exact. Approximate.

SPWRA reports tomorrow afternoon.

Sunpower is one of my favorite stocks and is one of the most exciting solar companies around. These guys are doing everything right.

If you believe, like me, in the Alternative Energy Revolution and a huge bull market in the cards for this sector then SPWRA is worth keeping an eye on. Frankly, I have no idea what type of numbers and guidance they are going to announce tomorrow. The economy is bad and many analysts expect the solars to guide down for this year.

Regardless, I'm holding my long term shares.

Next stop SPY 82?

Can the bulls mount a reversal before that?

We are still intemediate term overbought so a pullback today should not be too surprising, although the magnitude was.

We are still in the midst of earnings season, with biggies like AAPL and VMW reporting on Wednesday. I think 82 on the SPY should hold until then.

What You Don't Know Can Hurt You

Do You Know That, At Best, Most Short-Term Traders Are Only 30%-50% Correct About Stock or Market Direction?

The question is what do you do with the other times that you're wrong? That will be your downside. If you don't protect against the downside, it's pretty impossible to make any headway to the upside.


Some Ways to reduce the "downside":


1) When you're no longer sure about the trade and you have a chance to go breakeven, by all means get out at breakeven. That's probably the best trade you can make given the uncertainty. Otherwise, you're just gambling. Unless you're making mega number of trades or your account is too small, commission costs should not be an issue.


2) When you enter a trade and it goes against you (which means you were wrong) but later moves back into your direction, think about closing the position when you were lucky to breakeven as soon as the stock starts stalling. You can always restart another trade after a new analysis.


3) Put more money into trades you're most certain of and less on those you're not.


4) If your first trade was a lost of .50 on the SPY, for instance, your next trade should be focused on clearing out that first trade's lost as soon as you get the chance.

For example, today I shorted the SPY at 86.66 and set a stoploss at 87.12 . The market rallied and my stop was hit for a lost of .46 . My last trade was longing SPY at 87.18 . I was very excited and confident about that last trade and made it a bigger position. As soon as my position was profitable and the stock looked like it was overbought or stalling, I sold enough shares to make up for the lost of the last trade.

5) There is nothing wrong with a breakeven trade! I think it's a beautiful thing. How else are you gonna protect yourself against the downside when you're wrong about the trade?

When you're right, you can let your profits run if you think there's more room to run. When you're wrong, a break-even trade is a blessing. Don't ever forget that.

Something is not right with GOOG giving up all its gains..

I have already reentered my overnight short on the SPY.

Will hold this time.

I think the corrective move starts tomorrow.

FCX is a good short as well.

Possibility of seeing SPY 87 today

on anticipation of (good) GOOG earnings. However, we are very close to a real pullback that could happen starting tomorrow. It may have already started with commodities like copper FCX. I'm still short FCX at 42.5 .

Really good time to pay attention.

With that said, I'm running off for a few hours. See ya in awhile.

Avoid Triple ETFs like FAS & FAZ !!!

Regarding the triple etfs (i.e. FAS/FAZ):

The best advice i can i give you is to STAY AWAY from them, or play extremely small like i recommended when i picked FAS a few weeks ago.

It is conceivable to me that they could eventually both go to 0. They both started from over $50, if i remember correctly, and look at where they're now. If one of them goes below 1 and the market reverses, the other will likely get there as well. Once you get below 1, compounding won't work very well in lifting the stock higher.

I've seen too many traders, even some of the best, get clobbered by these ultra etfs. It's sad. It's very sad. These things trade like options; so FAS and FAZ really gives you a glimpse into the reality of options trading. I told ya many times already that options are for suckers, despite how much some of you loony bins would like to still argue with me.

The saddest thing is people, including normally good sensible traders, even average down on these things - in particular, many bears have been averaging down on FAZ since 50's! Yikes! Kill me now!

I still think FCX is a good short

Here's the weekly charts:



I still think it's a good swing short, though it's still not giving up just yet. I'm short since $42.5 as a hedge for my mostly long portfolio. I think once it closes below 43, it's a goner. I think the commodities will pull back soon, even though the Fast Money guys have been pumping copper for awhile now.

Been pretty ill the last few days.

Surprised how I could post so many twits.

Well, gonna get rested and see what shakes tomorrow. I'd be surprised if the bull run ends on the morning gap down. The morning dip will likely be bought. Maybe we'll get a rally into the close. I'd like to see at least SPX 870 and see if that one holds.

Note that we are intermediate term overbought and very due for a consolidation soon.

Where Is Triple FAS headed?

FAS has a measured move to $13. Broke out of inverted head n shoulders on thursday. 7.5-2.3= 5.2 + 7.5 = 13

I will not be playing FAS. Triple etfs are for gamblers, imo.

Bears' Last Stand?

Bears' Last Stand? Dow 11,000 end of 2009! Psychic Monte Farber saw the future. Goodbye FAZ, you're going to heaven. Listen now. Or click here.

We'll be watching that 11,000, won't we? lol.

I think George Soros and Doug Kass are correct in stating that the worst is behind us. That means we have only one way to go and that is UP.

Bears Pulverized By Batwings Formation

Wednesday after the bell, I thought that we would gap down and/or selloff on Thursday and thus put in a small overnite SPY short. Wednesday night was when I realized there was the Batwings Formation (discovered by yours truly) on that day. It was an inverted Batwings in that particular case. Take a look. Classic and sweet! As you know, the bat, over 80% of the times, goes back where it came from (or back to "land") and the move will be especially large. The Batwings Formation predicted a gap up (most likely a decent sized) and huge rally. The bears haven't a clue and they had no chance against this awesome batwings formation.

The gap down from few days ago wasn't filled, even after two sessions. That's the reason why I thought we would sell off on Thursday. However, the batwings formation is the most powerful pattern when it comes to predicting the next day's movement. I've seen it time and time again - anybody who gets on the wrong side of this formation usually becomes roadkill.

Where To?

I expected the SPY to touch 87 this month and then we'll jerk around and consolidate the gains. However, if the bulls can take it up to 94 area this month, no matter how slight this possibility is, then the bear market is OVA. Yes, I mean over as in GAME-OVER-for-bears-thanks-for-playing-but-your-days-are-outnumbered-over.

Investment Thesis for SPWRA

LONG-TERM WINNER, BUT NEARTERM
PRESSURES LIKELY TO WEIGH
ON SHARES; INITIATING AT HOLD

• Initiating with a HOLD and $23 target. We are initiating coverage on
SunPower with a HOLD rating and $23 price target. The company is
a technology leader and one of a select few with large-scale utility
wins and experience, but a potential reset of expectations and fair
valuation are keeping us on the sidelines for now.

• Tough H1/09. Management recently telegraphed that Q1 will be
difficult, and we believe that Street estimates are too aggressive.
The possibility for a miss may be reflected in the shares, but the
recent run-up in price suggests prudence is warranted.

• Utility-scale PV opportunity. SunPower stands to benefit from the potential multi-billion dollar utility-scale PV opportunity. SunPower’s systems offer among the lowest LCOE and the highest power output, and the company has extensive large-scale projects already in the ground and in backlog.

• Focusing on higher-value-add services. We believe that SunPower’s long-term strength is tied to its migration downstream, where it has begun to focus on selling actual electricity and services, rather than merely selling solar panels like much of its competition. This strategy is more defensible, in our opinion, as it appears to be less susceptible to the forces of commoditization.

• Technology leadership. We believe that SunPower is a technology
leader, manufacturing the highest efficiency silicon cells
commercially. We believe that this differentiated technology helps
SunPower panels and systems achieve among the lowest levelized
cost of energy (LCoE) in the industry.

source

FCX looks ready to implode

I think it's a really good short tomorrow. Good hedge for your portfolio.

Take a look.

Short it first thing in the morning.

The stock closed at 40.62

Ain't that Just Beautiful?

Uptick Rule Ruling Tomorrow

WASHINGTON -- The Securities and Exchange Commission plans to unveil several short selling restriction proposals Wednesday.

One includes reinstating the "uptick rule," a Depression-era rule abolished by the SEC in 2007 that prevented traders from short selling unless the price of the stock from the most recent trade was higher than the previous price. Short selling is the sale of borrowed shares by an investor hoping to profit by buying an equal number of shares later at a lower price to replace the borrowed stock. The rule was abolished after several studies showed it had little effect.

The recent financial crisis has raised short-selling concerns and prompted calls from politicians and some industry players to reinstate a version of the old rule.

Starting to get overbought intermediate term

I think there's a possibility we could see SPY 87 or SPX 870 before the actual corrective move to the high 700 or low 800 on the spx. Of course, I would love SPY 95 this month but that would be wishful thinking.

At this point, all morning dips can still be bought if you're daytrading.

The Solar Revolution Is For Real

"With SolarLease™, you pay as you go, instead of all at once. Monthly lease payments are typically lower than what you currently pay for electricity. For a no-obligation estimate, start with your zip code above."

http://solarcity.com

*Solarcity was founded by Elon Musk. He also was the founder of Paypal and is currently running a company that builds spaceships. The man has a very impressive background.


Solar will lead the next huge bull market. Not sure exactly when those stocks will take off in a big way, but it's not a matter of if but a matter of when.

Getting Ready For The Next Bull Market

I was at Borders this afternoon with my daughter. I happened to come across the newspaper aisle and saw the front cover of the IBD (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. This is the photo, from the G20 meeting:



Never mind that the guy in the middle will be totally bald pretty soon. This picture is all I need to see to believe that this bear market is about to end and a new bull market is coming. Everything we're doing to fight this potential depression differs than what we did in the 1930's. The Fed has been showering the economy with money and saving many big firms. Bernanke believes that it's better to do more than to do too little. We did too little in the 1930's and thousands of banks ended up failing. Roosevelt, as did Bush, also shunned the international community. He wanted to do things his way, rather than the right way. This is a global recession! Only the ignorant would not cooperate and work together.

Some people, notably the vocal bears, believe we should let all these irresponsible companies fail. The Fed tried that approach by letting Lehman Brothers go belly up, and the markets got torpedoed in an egregious way. These companies are incredibly huge with widespread tentacles that they will disrupt all facets of the economy. The Lehman episode was shocking. I think the markets (and hence the economy) would have puked its brains out if AIG wasn't bailed out, and let go the way Lehman was let go. I believe people were nuts when they called for the death of FNM/FRE. There is a time for "free markets" and a time for necessary intervention.

Anyway, with so much money thrown into the economy and the credit markets starting to thaw and the MTM repealed, it's hard to imagine the banks would not ease on their lending. So, I'm preparing for the next bull market. I believe some of these stocks listed below will be leaders. Stocks like AAPL and GOOG will continue to innovate and dominate their respective markets but, since they're already so huge in market capitalization, they're not gonna explode your portfolio from here unless they pay lots of dividends and do spinoffs. **Be sure to keep an eye on promising companies that will start going IPO as the stock market improves.

In technology, the hot areas are likely:

Virtualization - dominated by VMWare(VMW)
Cloud computing - GOOG, Salesforce(CRM), AMZN
Software as a service - Salesforce(CRM)
Social networking - Facebook, Twitter, etc.
Internet - GOOG, Akamai(AKAM)
China internet - BIDU, Shanda(SNDA), NetEase(NTES)

Retail - AMZN, Autozone(AZO)

Financial - V, MA

Alternative energy, with solar energy being the dominant theme as their technology continues to improve:
First Solar(FSLR), Sunpower(SPWRA), Suntech(STP)

I am leaving out Energy Conversion Devices(ENER) because it's a relatively smaller solar firm compared with the other 3, but they have huge number of patents for advanced technology (which is not yet viable at the present time but could be huge in the future).

The reasons I believe we will have a huge bull market in alternative energy is because of the threat of global warming and because we're running out of oil with insatiable demand from growing economies such as China. Oil prices should spike higher in the years ahead. Any economy that depends mainly on oil consumption for their energy source will not survive in the future, imo.

Owning A Piece of 'The Venetian'

I bought some LVS (Las Vegas Sands) @ 4.3 today as an investment. Once in awhile, I like to buy a few shares of really beaten down stocks of brand name companies like LVS, BBI and ETFC. Some will probably eventually go belly up, but some might survive and thrive in a couple years. You only need one to do well to make up for the other roadkills. Always a good idea to take 1/2 off any of the stocks that doubles and ride the rest.

Interesting note is that the Ceo was worth $10 billion 1-2 years ago based on his stock holding. His LVS shares are now worth about $450 million. The guy should have sold 1/2 when the going was good.

The Batwings on SPY

Like I said in the comments section of the previous post, we have the ominous formation formed from a huge gap up.

80% chance we get a decent sized gap down and/or huge selloff the next day.

20% chance we get a gap up, with a resultant big rally.

I made the mistaken assumption we would gap higher after RIMM's report and the futures followed. The futures are down when I got back home 30 minutes ago.

We have the Employment Report tomorrow morning. It should be pretty obvious which way we're headed post announcement.

Bears To The Guillotine

The market is gapping up huge as Geithner fuels growing optimism that the economic slide may be slowing. The G20 Summit is today.

The decision of FASB (mark to market) is today as well. Unemployment claims is also out today. We also have the employment number tomorrow.

With so much news coming, it's gonna be a wild ride. Be careful about buying stocks today, and definitely don't buy before the FASB decision (which comes out about 5 hours after 8am Eastern). If you don't have long positions coming into Thursday, this is not the day to go long because the bears will likely be looking for an entry to short this market. They're gonna fade the news, most likely. If you're not a quick trader, it's probably best to take the day off. I have some bullish positions and may be looking to shed some today if the market reverses after the FASB decision.

Happy April Fools' Day!