Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Short SPWR for a day/swing trade

SPWR closed @ 87.2

The stock could not stay above the 200dayMA of $89 on Wednesday. Combine that with a negative close, you have a stock that will likely turn weak in the short term. I think it goes lower on Thursday. Remember that, on most Thursdays, for some reason the market tends to selloff huge at least for part of the day. I'm not really sure if it's some type of conspiracy amongst the big boys or that it's a self-fulfilling phophecy that's been passed on throughout the years.

Let's daytrade or swingtrade it. Any morning gap higher ought to be shorted.

Note we have SPWR as an "Overnite Daytrading" short as well.


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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

DJIA, SPX, QQQQ, IWM all bullish!

Here is the SPX chart . The point-n-figure chart (at the bottom of the page) indicates a bullish trend. You can see the same thing with the other three indicis.

So the path of least resistance is that we are trending higher and the bulls do have advantage. The bears have alot of work to do, alot to prove that they are in control, which they are currently not.

I think the commodities will continue to get hit hard throughout next month. The question is whether their selloff will pull the market down as well. We need new leadership to prevent the market from pulling back with the commodities.

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Monday, April 28, 2008

GRMN not so grim anymore.

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GRMN closed @ 47.4

I already profiled this stock several points lower and i'm liking what i see. I have a long term position in at the 45 area and looking to enter a swing position above 50. Next stop to 55 is almost a certainty. I don't think the 3 month massive bloodletting was warranted and believe this stock will recover nicely like VMW did.

As you know, i don't like losing money with swing trades and so i'll be managing my new position very actively. I will be entering at above 50 with a stop lost below it.


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Sunday, April 27, 2008

FSLR about to blow thru the freakin roof!

FSLR closed @ 288.2

Earnings is this coming Wednesday. I normally don't like to game earnings but if i were to do it, i would long FSLR. This company is still in the early stage of growth where it will continue to pulverize estimates until it becomes a mature company. History is still on the bulls' side and they should therefore press it.

I still believe FSLR will close north of 300 before earnings report.

All morning dips ought to be bought!


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Thursday, April 24, 2008

7 HotLinks for the Weekend


Leona Lewis - the next Mariah Carey

Game over for Boone Pickens if oils fall hard?

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S&P sees oil at $91 by year end

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

FSLR at $286 is a steal!

FSLR closed @ 286

The stock sold off hard towards Wed's close, but on light volume. This stock is headed higher tomorrow is what i'm betting on. I will be paying special attention to FSLR these next few days into earnings. If it plays out as i suspect it will, alot of short term money can be made.

I have a long term position bought near 50, a swing position started today at 293, and will continue to fade the stock every morning.

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The next Mariah Carey?

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

FSLR marching towards $400

FSLR closed @ 298

Earnings for FSLR is next Wednesday, i've been told. It took several days but we finally cracked 300. Even though the stock closed below 300 (due to a generally horrible market today), the ceiling has been cracked and the stock is ready for liftoff.

If FSLR beats estimates next week, expect a huge gapper the following day, to the tune of 50-80 points. This stock is gonna lead the sector. I believe it will be all over the media next year as the raging bulls take the stock so much higher. Can you say, "The next Google!"

If you don't plan to own for the longer term, buying any morning weakness tomorrow can yield a sizable short term return. The stock just started its pre-earnings run today and i expect some more to go.

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Monday, April 21, 2008

Don't leave home without your Visa!

V closed @ 70.9

The afternoon pullback on Monday is decent enough to set itself up for another run tomorrow. Also, the Najarian Bulldog pumped V on FastMoney tonite.

This stock is going to natural resistance at 100, no ifs ands or buts about it. The chart looks great. Momentum looks great.

Get buying! (Buy any morning dips. Easy money.)

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Sunday, April 20, 2008

V getting ready to fly?

V closed @ 69

I want this stock to stay above 69, preferably 70, before re-entering for a momentum swing trade. Let's see if the stock can move higher this week.

At these levels, it won't be an investment for me because it is now nearly half the size of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC). Seriously, Wellsfargo is a much stronger and more valuable company than V.

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buy this stock

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Fading the Morning Gap

Instead of having to write in detail the whole idea behind fading the gaps, i want you to read this first.

The interesting thing is that, in most trading days, the first 30 minutes of trading after the opening bell tend to produce the low and high for the day. If you pay attention to the tape for any stock, you'll see that is often the case. For whatever reason, whether it be general market news or company or sector specific news, alot of the trading to both extremes of high and low occurs the first 30 minutes. After the first 30 minutes, if a new high or a new low is produced, the trend tends to continue to that direction throughout the day. So if you see a new high after the first 30 minutes, you should be thinking that there is still alot of interest in the stock and the trend should continue higher into the close. Not always, but often enough. Sometimes there may be a (temporary) new high after the first 30 minutes, and you see the stock go back below the first 30 minute high. Often times if that happens, i usually would sell the position that i bought (assuming i bought after the first 30 minutes new high breakout).

Ok, enough of the 30 Minutes Rule, let's get back to "fading the gap". Let's use what happened to FSLR on Friday as an illustration of this concept. So what happened? On Thursday nite, GOOG beat earnings and the market gapped up huge on Friday morning. Just about every stock gapped higher. In premarket, FSLR gapped nearly 8 dollars to near 295. There was no specific news to FSLR or the solar sector; it was a market driven event. (Had FSLR gapped higher on company specific news, you may need to exercise care shorting it on the gap up.) To fade the gap up on FSLR, you should look at the previous day's chart to see where the resistance points were. The 295 area was where the big drop started occurring on Thursday; so it was a decent point to short even in premarket where you had no idea what the stock was gonna do when it opens. It eventually fell to 291-292 in premarket, up +5 from Thursday's close. If you didn't catch the 295, what now?

Ok, i just erased the second half of this post, upon reflecting where i first learned how to fade the gaps. I think i already gave out enough information for you to work out the rest of the equation, if you would just think about it. If you're still stuck, I suggest you go get Michael Parness' book, 'Rule the Freakin' Market' or you read this post and visit his site and sign up to learn it if you want to trade like Waxie, excellent trader and gap fader extraordinaire. Only after you've tried these two things and still not get it, then i'll give ya the second half of this post. Good luck!

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Friday, April 18, 2008

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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

FSLR = 300 = solar breakout

FSLR closed @ 295.9

TSL, YGE, and STP are all siting right below resistance, the 200dayMA. While FSLR and SPWR are trading above their 200dayMA, they are sitting under whole number resistance 300 and 100, respectively.

All eyes are on SPWR's earnings tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon before the closing bell. I'll be watching and so should you.


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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

STP (and FSLR, SPWR, TSL) bustin' loose!

STP closed @ 45.1

If it flies on Wednesday, don't tell me i didn't give you the heads up on the stock. It was called as an "Overnite Daytrading" buy, a swingtrade for Wednesday, and a long term investment. Wow, with all timeframes covered, how can you lose? lol

STP needs to trade above 45.60 for a confirmed breakout. Intel gapped higher after earnings; so that should help the overall market tomorrow. FSLR also looks like it really wants 300 very badly. TSL also looks primed to take off as well.

SPWR (the next Cisco?) has earnings this week and is having its pre-earnings run. That too should help bring momentum to the solars.

Well, what can i say? All the stars appear positively aligned for the market and for solars on Wednesday. Bend over, solar bears!


buy this stock or buy this stock

Monday, April 14, 2008

GLD Melting Away

GLD closed @ 91.1

Take a look at the chart of GLD. The massive 3 day drop in the middle of March signals pretty much the end of the run, especially when you consider how low the Dollar is. There's only so much the American dollar can drop before it starts reversing for good. When that fateful reversal day comes (which isn't too long from now) for the Dollar, the commodities will take a nosedive.

Dollar aside, the kind of big drop on high volume like what occurred in March for GLD usually leads to a continued slide for about 2-3 months before any decent rebound. This is typical of how most stocks behave when they get their legs chopped off like that. GLD is on its first month.

If the stock closes above the 50dayMA, currently at 92.7, i'll re-evaluate my thesis. Otherwise, GLD is a short.

buy this stock or buy this stock

Sunday, April 13, 2008

TSL ready to shine!

TSL closed @ 38

If you want to find previous posts about TSL, on the top left corner is a search box where you can put in the ticker symbol.

I still believe solars will end up significantly by year end, and most will go ballistic in 2009. We still have a couple more years left in this gigantic alternative energy bull market. GE disappointed on Friday. I see that as an opportunity to buy the solar leaders FSLR, SPWR and STP, if you don't already own them (or would like to add to your positions).

Back to TSL, the next stop should be to $45 where the 200dayMA sits. The stock got an upgrade on Friday. I feel this stock is cheap relative to their growth, revenues and earnings.

I will not be buying TSL for a long term hold. As previously stated, i want to find and ride the Next (Solar) Intel. Maybe nobody becomes the solar intel, but somebody will get above 100 billion market capitalization. I'm pretty certain of that. In the last bull market, JDSU got well over 100 billion market cap for their fiberoptics business/hype. With the political, economic and environmental problems of modern times, i think you would agree with me that solar energy business/hype will be much bigger than fiberoptics.

buy this stock

Where did the Firefox logo come from?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

9 HotLinks for the Weekend


Doug Kass: Recession Will Run Deep

"I got a crush on Obama" - by the Obama Girl

Should the fed fear the economy or the market?

buy this stock

Lazard Capital analyst sees +100% upside in many solar stocks. I really think you should start putting money into the top 3 solars, if you haven't done so. The train is leaving the station...

Obama Girl tells Hilary to stop attacking Obama. lol

Was March a trading low or a market bottom?

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SNDK & GRMN abused no more!

SNDK closed @ 27.2

This flash chip monopoly got hurt pretty bad the last 9 months, down from 60 to 20. It is now trading 4 points above the 50dayMA and showing good signs of life. First target should be the 35 area. I believe this stock should be trending higher from this point on.

GRMN closed @ 45.9

Man, a chart is worth a thousand words: GRMN machine-gunned to death. But at this area, it's a great long term investment. Definitely back up the truck if it gets to $40.


buy this stock

Short AAPL

AAPL closed @ 152.8

I've said to short this stock yesterday for a swing trade yesterday at 154.6 to 155.6 area. It has run too far too fast and it should pull back below 150 by friday.

It is still not too late to short it, especially when it is gapping higher this morning.


buy this risky stock

Monday, April 7, 2008

SUTR for you small cap lovers!

SUTR closed @ 6.28

This afternoon, I said i was likely gonna post about this stock when it was trading under $6. Today the stock broke out of a multi-month ascending triangle, on large volume. The last two months, looking at the weekly chart, we see large volume on green days and lower volume on the red days. This is a very positive sign that the stock is most likely headed higher. Also, look at the daily chart and you see an inverted head-n-shoulders formation that started in February. The neckline is essentially broken. SUTR chart

SUTR should go higher tomorrow.

As stated already, i do not own a position and i don't plan to. I don't usually play stocks below $30 any more. Stocks above $50 is where i enjoy playin', because they offer less risk and also allows me to put more money into them.

Good luck!


buy this risky stock

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Sunday, April 6, 2008

FSLR about to thrust $400 down shorts' throats!

FSLR closed @ 278

Once it chews up 283 (December high) for good, $400 is a certainty. I think it will probably happen on Monday or Tuesday. If by an unlikely event it can't take out 283, it will definitely blow it away come earnings.

These are the best times to buy buy buy the market! Believe it. No amount of intellectual exercises or bear mongering are gonna stop the market from going higher towards year end. Being in a "recession" is the best time to buy, before the Fed stimulus takes effect starting May. Solars are about to go ballistic. See ya at $400 on FSLR very soon. Watch for that 283. Back up 9 trucks on the break!!

The market hasn't improved that much, yet FSLR is near lifetime highs. It will go crazy when the market does improve. Absolutely nutso! FSLR is probably the easiest money you gonna make this year.

buy this stock

Saturday, April 5, 2008

The Most Logical Way to Find the Solar Intel

Well, what can i say? I already told you folks to gather up some solars for weeks now because i knew they would come back, and come back they did - with a vengeance. I recommended the solars over a year ago, with FSLR, STP, SPWR all under 40-50. I was again very adamant about you owning them several weeks ago at the bottom, when many of you started selling and going short and giving me hell (lol). If you failed to own them 2 times at the low points, when do you plan to get in? There is a huge bull market coming in alternative energy and we're only like in the 2nd inning.

If you want to ride the next solar intel, you've got to stick to the top 2-3 leaders by market cap. It's the only way you can catch that solar intel, because by necessity it would have to funnel itself all the way to the top by way of market cap. We don't have the money nor the manpower to do the kind of thorough research that the big boys do, so we watch the market capitalization of the stocks. If the big guys know a good thing, they'll put most money into the potential solar intel.

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Friday, April 4, 2008

7 HotLinks for the Weekend

PG&E orders tons of thermal solar power

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Clintons reported over $109 million in earnings the last 7 years.

FSLR the next solar intel?

FSLR closed @251.60

We have to assume that FSLR has the greatest chance of being the Next Solar Intel based on their growth, unique technology and market capitalization. It is what the big boys are thinking after doing their research; therefore, they award this solar with the highest market cap of all pure play solars.

You do know what happens when Cramer pumps the hottest stock in the hottest sector, don't you? The man is defending the stock like no other. FSLR can only go one way and that is UP UP and Away!

Buy buy buy, then buy buy buy more on all dips!

Those of us who bought under $50 last year WILL BE RICH RICH RICH!


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Thursday, April 3, 2008

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S: Q1 Trading Results are in...
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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

More sunshine for LDK & YGE

YGE closed @ 20.1
LDK closed @ 30 (but gapping up $3 afterhours)

The 200dayMA is at 23.2 and YGE is gunning for it, no doubt. LDK is headed to the 200dayMA at 40.5 .

What really turned the solars scorching hot today was essentially this:

" Cowen notes their sources in D.C. tell them that Senators Cantwell and Ensign are drafting an energy tax (ITC/PTC) bill--WITHOUT pay-fors, which could see Senate action Friday. Firm remains bullish on the prospects for such a bill, given the dropped pay-fors construction. they believe that it will be passed in both chambers, and that it should be signed into law during/before May. Final term extensions are hard to handicap. Cowen thinks the Senate bill will have L-T extensions, but that these could shorten (to 1-2 years) in conference. They understand that passing the ITC/PTC is a high priority for Majority Leader Reid. One of the key developments was the consultation between parties, and with the White House. A positive ITC development should positively impact the stocks with greatest U.S. exposure, including Outperform-rated SPWR, ESLR, ENER, and STP." - from Notablecalls

The market closed down but the solars rode high to the sky, which suggests more upside tomorrow. Lots of great news from several solar companies today as well. Check out LDK to see what i mean. Hot news on polysilicon supply! LDK going much higher.

I suspect we will get another really bright day for solars on Thursday.

What? You don't believe in solars and want to short the hell out of them? Then you are royally screwed. Feel free to paypal your money to beanieville@gmail.com and let me put it to good use. lol.

Witness the rise of the Solar Phoenixes!


buy this stock

DIRE WARNING TO ALL BEARS!!!!!

URGENT WARNING TO ALL BEARS!!!

omg, the bears are dead meat! Old bear Doug Kass goes bullish for the next 8 years!

Read the last 2 paragraphs! I love it. Permabear turn bullish for the next 8 years!

As expected, the alternative energy sector (along with financials and tech, but mostly alternative energy and natural gas) will lead this gigantic bull market that the world has ever seen.

Read it and weep. Dow 56,000!!!!

Excerpt:
"# I am now in total agreement with CNBC's Dennis Kneale, who thinks that stocks have never been cheaper, and I am even moving close to Ben Stein's bullish mantra, as it is now clear that the market correction was really caused by short sellers, traders and the economist at Goldman Sachs (GS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) -- all of whom were seeking to capitalize on silly and fictional headlines.

# I am pleased to announce that I will be hosting a new CNBC show (at 4:30 p.m. EDT daily and after "The Closing Bell") called "The Mad Bull." The show will be entirely dedicated to the new bull market I envision.

# I am also pleased to announce that I am writing a new book in collaboration with The Wharton School's Dr. Jeremy Siegel. It will be entitled Dow 56,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market and The Long Economic Boom of 2008-2015."

- You folks have better get your arses out of that bear mode. You have been misled. Ben Stein was correct. The bears cheated. I've been saying all this bear nonsense should disappear by May-June of this year and looks like it's getting close to fruition.

April Fools!

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Tuesday, April 1, 2008

STP ready to explode upwards?

STP closed @ 41.4

The stock tried for two days to close above the important 50dayMA at 42.5 but failed twice. Perhaps 3rd time's a charm. When it does happen, you need to get ready to pile in for the ride to the next stop at 49.

I'm not sure why Cramer is negative on STP yet positive on FSLR. What a psychopath. lol. I guess he wants to see $100 on STP before pumping the stock for $400? (like BIDU)


buy this stock