Rockets for GOOG

GOOG closed @ 564

The stock took a dive afterhours for missing analysts targets, but regained some of it back. The previous low of 519 held nicely. The Najarian Bulldog recommended his listerners to get in GOOG right before earnings. Needless to say, he is being burned in effigy in the message boards right now by the same listeners.

But his call tonite is right on! He says GOOG will regain all its loss on Friday, and i totally agree with him on that. AMZN is no GOOG but it did nicely today, reversing all its afterhour losses. GOOG is going higher. Not only is their earnings very impressive, their stock is also very oversold. GOOG gave up 150 points right before earnings. The chart itself indicates a screaming buy.

Another reason this scenerio will happen is because next week belongs to the bulls. I looked at some of the indicis and i like what i see. Take a look (i'm using the SPY as an example but you can check the DIA, IWM and QQQQ as they are all showing the same thing):

SPY chart

Look at the top graph (ppo). I use it because stockchart.com uses it, and it's pretty good indicator for the short term. You see the black line just crossed the red line? That indicates the bulls are coming back at least for the short term. Usually after it crosses, the bulls take over the market for at least a week. The market selloff had been so deep and so fast and so oversold that i can't help but think we gonna get a very decent rally tomorrow and a decent part of next week.

We got some numbers to watch tomorrow morning, but i think we go higher regardless of what it says. It could gap the market down (which is what i want, so we can scoop up GOOG on the cheap) but should rally into the green.

Buy some GOOG premarket, and a second half at the open. buy buy buy under 530 if possible.

Daytrade, swingtrade or long term investment (GOOG is an absolute monster!)


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Time to short WFC!!!

WFC closed @ 32.7

The bounce for the financials had were spectacular the last week or two. Now that the rate cut is out of the way, traders will "sell the news". Wells Fargo(WFC) traded right above the 200dayMA of 33.58 after the fed announcement, but closed below it, forming the ominous candlestick pattern.

I have no doubt it will see 30 again. Let's short this stock or buy puts. If all you got in your portfolio are long positions, you need stocks like WFC as a hedge because it's a good one for the short term. Let's hold for a few days if it goes our way.

Swingtrade.

The truth is, even though i think the bottom is already in for the market, i am only 70% certain of this. That leaves still plenty of room to be wrong. But that's ok; we're in the right sector (solars) for the long haul.

(Note: Don't take me too seriously whenever i'm at Timmy Bear's Lair. I'm only just having a little bit of fun. Those guys are too serious. lol...)

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Don't Game The Fed

The market is still very oversold if you look at the daily and weekly charts. But these are not normal times. Furthermore, we've basically rallied the last few days and a short term pullback post Fed could happen. This is pretty much what all traders are expecting - a pullback. As that is the case, if the Fed says something very reassuring, we'll get a mega rally from a massive short covering.

I don't know. You don't know. So sit tight and wait.

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Get ready to short CME!

CME closed @ 625

The stock gapped higher Monday morning, and then sold off as soon as it hit the 50dayMA. With the stock ending in a bearish engulfing pattern, CME should be headed down and should close in the red on Tuesday. The stock is very short term overbought, 120 points added to its valuation in a matter of just a few days.

Swingtrade or daytrade. Short it or buy puts. A gap up is the best entry.

Note that CME is also our Overnite Daytrade.


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Black Monday

More sun for Sunpower (SPWR)?

SPWR closed @73.2

SPWR got its lights dimmed right after earnings for not impressing the street. In this stock market environment, everybody takes a hit, even those that wow-ed. SPWR took a $15 dollar hit early on, but two days later recovered nearly all the losses. On Friday, the stock closed up another $4 on 3x the average volume. This bodes well for the stock price going forth.

SPWR is one of my favorite solar plays. The company is growing up like crazy and revenue is expected to reach almost $2 billion in 2009. Even though their margins are very low compared to many of the Chinese counterparts, i believe their margins will improved due to better technology and manufacturing from this point on. They got some of the brightest solar scientists on their team. Besides, it may not be the best idea to only invest in Chinese solars. American investors favor American companies more, and you should too. Longer term, i think it's alot better for you to invest more in American companies.

Swing or longer term trade. All morning dips should be bought, for a daytrade.


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Banks need to raise 143 billion from bond insurer downgrades

STP probably has the most potential!

...At least amongst all the Asian and international solars.

STP closed @ 52.3

WFR's impressive earnings last nite should bode well for the sector today. For whatever reason, STP has been knocked down hard with the rest of the sector. It's unjust and it will be repriced back much higher.

The technicals are looking like the stock has bottomed. I would definitely buy on all dips. Congrats if you were brave enough to buy in on yesterday's early solar carnage. The stock retested the mid 40's and successfully closed above 50. It's going higher.

day/swing/longer term trade. For daytrades, you almost always want to buy the morning weakness.

On a different note, it looks like most of our overnite daytrades are gettin smashed from going against Mister Softie. But if you were watching MSFT afterhours yesterday, you should have gotten out your short(s) with very minimal loss. The only short i see where we could lose big money is GOOG. Yikes! Good for me i only played 2 of those short positions, and it wasn't GOOG. On hindsight, i actually made a mistake with calling out those overnite daytrades. They were overbought the last 30 minutes or so, but most actually were sold off to relieve that "overbought-ness" the last 15 minutes. It's also generally a bad idea to bet against Microsoft. I didn't cover my shorts because i wasn't home. I'm gonna wait out the first 30 minutes of trading to see what happens. But i think i'm gonna have to swallow those losses. If you only started playin those overnite trades, it won't be a happy day for you. But rest assured, we will get them next time.

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All sunlight points to SPWR

SPWR closed @ 74.2

Today at about 1:30 Eastern, SPWR will be announcing their earnings which will determine the direction of the solars in the short term.

SPWR is very severely oversold technically. It is definitely the stock to watch because if they impress, the stock will fly and will take the rest of the sector with it. I also think STP and JASO and FSLR are at very good levels to buy.

I still love solars and think they have a very bright future.

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I'm buying some JASO and STP tomorrow

JASO closed @ 60.4
STP close @ 56.3

I'm gonna take the opportunity to buy these two stocks on the morning dip, for a longer term hold. I think at this point solars are very short term oversold. The JASO split run is very near, so it should go higher from here in the next few weeks. STP is a worldwide solar leader that bounced off the 200dayMA today and closed strongly.

I don't think we have bottomed yet buy i gotta make a stand somewhere, so i'm gonna start buying tomorrow, at most 1/2 positions.

Looks like AAPL is done for awhile and the wreckage there should help our overnite shorts in FSLR and WYNN. WYNN is starting to annoy me as a swingtrade. Remember that 102 is resistance and once i feel it can close above it, i'm out. I should have taken my profits on the gap down this morning. WYNN got upgraded afterhours, i've been told. If it doesn't stay below 100 tomorrow, i suggest you get out at breakeven or with some profits. For me, however, i'm gonna wait for 102 to break.

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What a boring day this turned out to be!

The comment gates from the previous post are flooded. I'm opening another.

Imminent Doom?

Most bulls are hoping for a bounce, albeit short term, this week. Even some diehard bears think we are due a short term bounce. As i write this, the USA futures are getting their teeth knocked out. Many of the markets around the world dropped heavily on fears of a US recession. The Dow Jones are down 514 points and the Nasdaq futures are now down 76 points.

Several things favor the bulls, like:

- We are now in very oversold territory, and the VIX have spiked.
- The Dow closed at above support on Friday.
- An interest cut is coming next week, and we may even get an emergency cut this week.
- The Bush economic stimulus package of $145 billion should limit the downside of recession if we are in one.
- Some diehard bears have gone bullish.

On the other hand, the bears can mawl the sh%t out of the bulls, like:

- The bond insurers are in alot of trouble and any bankruptcy will spark a monumental selloff in the markets, as already indicated by Cramer on Friday.
- The recession fears are growing strong by the day, and normally at best it takes 4-6 months to get out of a perceived recession. This means the bears can keep on mauling for a few more months, at the worst case for them.
- The COT indicated the big boys have been selling for months.
- Intel's miss will have a negative impact on tech, adding to the already negative sentiment about the economy.
- Precious metals like gold recently spiked, indicating investor may favor hard assets.
- Lack of trust for the Bush-Benanke-Paulson complex because they didn't give what market participants perceived as what they needed, when they needed it. The complex was seen as taunting the market, and now any fix is perceived as a little too late.
- Historically, the crowning of a new Fed Chairman has resulted in big market declines in their first year on the job.
- The Yen is spiking, forcing the end of the yen carry trade, which is highly leveraged (10:1). If the yen keeps on spiking and the dollar keeps on dropping, this can and will devastate many economies.
- Warren Buffet is now at least $40 billion in cash. Typically he likes to buy at market bottoms with PE of around 8. The current market PE is around 18.
- I can't help but recall what my astrologer said, though he was early by a few months. He was too early and too adamant about it to be useful at the time. Anyhow, he said the meltdown would be unforgettable and many people will get really hurt by this decline and that it would likely be a worldwide event. It will not be a multiyear thing but rather a few months.


As you can see from the above list, sentiment is very negative out there right now. The bulls need to muster some type of offense this week, starting tomorrow, or we could be headed to 11,600 and ultimately to 10,000 on the Dow. They won't be able to do it without help from the Fed before tomorrow's close, which is what's really important. Even though the futures are crashing, the day is still young. We got today's session and then tonites session and then the close of tuesday, enough time for things to turn around even though i am less hopeful.

The stock i will be look to add to my swing short is WYNN, which closed at 101.5. It has heavy resistance at 102. If it can't get above 102, i'm going in.

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Why are all these old people speculating in the markets?

Relief That Works

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A Brutal Week For the Bulls

Most stocks went to hell. I think the commodities is where the problem is, as there are huge profit-taking after a multiyear bull market, which bleed to the rest of the market. The solars have a positive correlation with the oils - as oils go, so does the solars. I think this correlation is only temporary and once investors figured out that solars and alternative energy are in a secular bull market, they will come back and bid these stocks higher.

CME and JASO were really great overnite daytrades and i'm glad we got a huge profit even when the market was bad. I took profits on both, as you should have too because they're "daytrades". If you didn't take profits and turned it into a swingtrade, you're on your own.

WYNN, i still own the swingtrading short position at 98.4ish and closed out my daytrade position at 100.7 at breakeven. If you folks shorted this thing in the early morning, you are not paying attention to the post. You were suppose to watch that 95, which it never broke. Either you short below 95 or you wait to short higher. Shorting near 95 could put you in danger if the support holds, which it did today. The stock traded rangebound today between 95 to 102. There's alot of resistance at 102. As long as it closes below that, i'm not too worried about my swing position. I think we will be able to get another short position in next week and ride it down good.

As far as the general market is concerned, I don't think we have the ultimate bottom just yet but i think we are very close to a short term bottom if today wasn't it. Cramer is saying that the Dow could shed some 2,000 points if one of the insurers fails. That could happen because the market is so nervous right now and it could be self-fulfilling prophecy.

We just have to take one day at a time until this mess resolves. Stay put and be patient in mostly cash. The overnite daytrades are rockin. In fact, if my memory serves me right, we only have 1 failure in those trades - SPWR, when it got downgraded. I'm sure some of you are thinking,"What if i play just options on those overnite daytrades and become rich, since the success rate is nearly 90%?" The problem with that is sometimes we need to get out afterhours or premarket and options won't allow you to do that.


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At least he seems happy:

Short WYNN definately under 95!

WYNN closed @96.8

The stock has been touching the mid 90's for 3 days already. It doesn't want to go higher nor lower, but after yesterday's rant by Cramer about how bad the casinos will be, the dam is gonna break. Short below 95.

The IBM news is good but the rest of the economy still sucks. INTC is a better barometer for tech than IBM, imo. Traders will likely take today's rally as an opportunity to sell or sell short.


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BIDU to $2,000? <-----my target

MON, you don't look so hot.

MON closed @ 112.7

Short it on any rally. Look at that high volume drop on the stock today!

We're starting to hear the 'R' word everywhere and it can get pretty hairy as more and more investors start believing in it. Recession fears are very dangerous to the markets and result in stock multiples compression. That makes many of the recent high flyers very dangerous to own as they will be tumbling down like a rocket headed back to earth. Many sectors can get decimated as a result. You think solars are safe? Let me remind you that solars are currently considered "luxury fuel".

The earliest we typically get out of a perceived recession is about 4-6 months, at best. That takes us to May as potentially the ultimate bottom, if the next rate cut doesn't please the market.

I just don't feel very comfortable about this market. I do not think we have bottomed yet; maybe a short term bottom but not the real bottom. Still, even for a short term bottom, i want to see the S&P close above 1378. It is currently below that. With that said, we are very short term oversold and are owed a bounce but we got a pretty bad one today. Maybe the Benanke Viagra can help tomorrow. Maybe.

As a general bull, i sure hope that i'm wrong and the bulls go on their merry way. I'd love that! Until we rally hard and strong and everything is clear, i see all rallies as chances for the bears to reload.

Stocks to short when we don't feel right: solars and agriculture and tech, among others. If we don't pick up soon, expect these guys to be cut in half (i.e. YGE to 20, FSLR to 140, etc.). We are due a short term bounce. If it stalls and reverses, join the bears in riding the rocket down!


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Louis Navellier appears nervous

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China got the red light

Short stocks for the next 2 days.

Tomorrow's gap down would make all the stocks immediate oversold, so i'm gonna wait for a morning bounce before shorting. I might buy the gap down for a quick daytrade as well. But a mack truck is coming for the bulls the next 2 days. Traders think that the fed will do an emergency rate cut Friday morning right before expiration. I personally don't think they will lower rates this week but i would still cover all my shorts by Thursday's close.


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Beanieville "Overnite" Daytrades

Some of you i notice totally missed the concept of the overnite daytrade. Please note that if the stock doesn't go in your favor early on, you must consider that you may be wrong with the trade. Our overnite daytrades have been pretty successful roughly 90% of the time. MOS was a real success; it was in our favor very early on, and so that one could be kept longer (even though i personally didn't). JASO was another one, where i turned a daytrade into a swingtrade because it was in our favor pretty much all day yesterday. SOLF was the only one of the 3 that didn't work out and you had to get out early on this morning when the market looked scary early on. There was absolutely no reason to hold onto this overnite daytrade into the close. If you like the stock that is fine , but you have violated the beanieville overnite daytrade rule.

Also very important is the concept of position sizing. If you played all three stocks and played it well, you can still have made mediocre returns if you don't understand 'position sizing'. MOS was a $100 stock and SOLF was a $25 stock. If you, for instance, bought 100 shares of MOS and 400 shares of SOLF, you can still lose money on the trade (assuming you took early profits on MOS). You are buying too many shares of SOLF. Since SOLF is a smaller stock , it tends to be much more volatile. Let's say you lost $1 on SOLF times 400 shares, you lost $400. Even if you have made $3, times 100 shares of MOS = $300, you would end up losing money in total. That is a waste of your time and effort.

If you bought 100 shares of MOS, you should buy only 100 (200 max) shares of SOLF for proper position sizing.

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Since it's raining bears outside, got a song for ya, "Umbrella" by Maria Digby

Can you still be a staunch happy bull in cold bear waters?

Time to do some Research In Motion (RIMM)?

RIMM closed @ 96.3

RIMM is now in oversold territory and should be a very good buy on the strength of tech. Formed the spinning top today from the dip on friday; means indecision and likely a reversal.

It should be able to hit 103-105 on this tech rally.

You definitely want to buy any dip in the morning.

daytrade or swingtrade.

Note that we also have a couple of overnite daytrades from today: long VMW & SOLF, short MOS. Take profits on MOS in the morning as you get them because the market in general is very oversold shorterm. If you get a better price on these 3 stocks, then feel free to join in the fun. Like today, alot of us got a great price on the JASO short due to the morning gap up.



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We're Too Gloomy

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Short JASO, short FSLR

JASO closed @ 73
FSLR closed @ 221

With a gun to my head, i'd wager we go down this week. At the same time, we're very oversold in the short term and could reverse anytime.

I'm just gonna take one day at a time and not bet too much on either direction. Earnings reports will start to come out en masse this week and some of them will probably stink. Macworld is this week and should put some bids under tech. AAPL should get a few bucks higher but closing under 170 will send shockwaves heard around the world.

JASO i shorted this stock above 73 for an overnite daytrade. You still have a chance to short if it gaps higher in the morning. This is only for a daytrade (or possibly a swingtrade depending on the market).

FSLR can be shorted on a gap higher, or if it trades below 220.


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The bottom?

Bears' Last Stand in a few months?

Time for some BIDU and FSLR!

BIDU closed @ 339
FSLR close @ 226

They are both at short term bottoms and should go higher tomorrow. FSLR i like alot because not only did it closed with a candlestick doji (indicating a likely reversal is at hand), it also held above the 50dayMA of 222.

I can't say that this is the absolute bottom for the market and we're ready to rock n' roll. The market is giving us a short term bottom, so we take what we get.

Day or swing trade.


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JASO splits 3:1 next month.

JASO closed @ 70.3

You know how much i like the hot solar industry. We're still in the early innings of this huge bull market. There are no solar intels yet, with the closest being FSLR at 18 billion market capitalization. FSLR is definately the stock to watch and the one to own, until another catches up.

Another thing i look for is if the company starts splitting their stock, and JASO is the first and only pure play solar doing this. Splitting their stock has a positive emotional impact on investors. To me, it means that management is confident of their growth going forward. It also lets the small guy get in, who would have otherwise shunned the stock because they think it's expensive. lol

Typically, after the split, the stock usually goes back up to the original price within a year especially with companies in their early phase of hypergrowth. That means an easy double for us.

Swing or longer term trade. Wait for a dip to buy, if possible. This stock is still kinda overbought in the short term. Even though the market rallied today, there's still alot of important resistances to take out before we're out of the woods. I covered alot of my shorts but will be shorting again as the market goes higher.


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Doug Kass claims to know friends who says Fed is cutting soon

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We closed negatively 8 consecutive days!!!!

With not so much as a relief bounce on the nasdaq, dow or the sp500. This could only mean one thing to me: the big boys are scrambling and running themselves over just to get out. We keep on getting these morning rallies which then get faded and faded all the way to the close with more selling. And judging by the futures tonite, we're getting the same kind of setup once again.

Unless you have some really special attachment to your stocks, i suggest you sell the rallies and wait this one out. Let's take a defensive position by hedging or shorting or staying out of the market altogether, if you haven't done so. If you must make income to support yourself, then short the rallies, or join me in playing the overnite daytrades.

The rest of my longer term portfolio is already in a defensive mode several days ago, utilizing the 'Beanieville Technique of Escaping Cataclysmic Meltdown', with exception of N and AKNS that are not hedged at all. I'm gonna take tomorrow's rally to sell all my N if it stalls on the upside; most definately be out if it sinks thru 27. The same goes for AKNS; you won't find me there below 12.

Stocks i'm looking to short tomorrow are FSLR, ISRG (a really good one to short), and BSC.

With that said, the market was very oversold the late afternoon. Let's hope it gets a good bounce tomorrow, even better if it carries into Thursday.


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Buy GU , buy N

GU closed @ 11.38
N closed @ 28

The market is now very oversold in the immediate term and likely will rise on Tuesday.

N dropped from 42 to 28 in five trading sessions, 5 consecutive days. Too insanely oversold. It should bounce back a few points.

GU performed nicely amidst the market meltdown in the last session. It should go higher tomorrow.

We're not out of the woods just yet but we are most definately due for a rally.


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The bears have a hammerlock on the market?

At least for the short term, especially this coming week and possibly the next week as well, i think there's gonna be some pain for the bulls. The solars are finally correcting, at least that's what it seems to me.

I don't think the Fed has any choice now but to cut rates by 50 basis points by the end of this month. There may even be an emergency cut before then.

So what are we to do? It's time to go defensive. Hopefully we bounce tomorrow and then you can employ various strategies so you don't have to ride this thing down. I sure don't want to. You can sell some stocks that you plan to hold for the longer term and buy back when the coast is clear, you can buy puts to hedge some of your positions, you can short stocks, you can employ the Beanieville technique by selling some (or all) stocks and shorting 1/2 position of the same stocks and cover and rebuy everything once the coast is clear, etc.

FSLR closed @ 245.6
SPWR closed @ 126.1

FSLR likely will see 220, and if it gets really bad it could close the gap at 150. SPWR is sitting near the 50dayMA of 124 and if that breaks, it could see the low 100. I am only mentioning these two solars because i keep an eye on them all the time. Obviously, the smaller solars could get hit even harder.


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Can American anchors top this?

This is the most beautiful news anchor on the face of planet earth.

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Akeena Solar: America's Next Industrial Giant?

Credit Secret Bible

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Biodiesel GU about to get energized?

GU closed @ 11.5

This Chinese biodiesel company, largest in china, recently ipo-ed at a price near $10 at the New York Stock Exchange, so you know it's a real company. The company made $125 million in revenues and $40 million in income last year. That's over 30% in profit margin! Growth is expected to at least double in 2008. That makes this stock way too cheap.

The float is about 18 million shares, with 67 million shares outstanding. This stock deserves to trade at least above $20. With alternative energy and China this hot, it will.

I just can't see this stock going lower the next 1-2 days.

Day or swingtrade.


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This guy claims PV oversupply in 2008, but he likes AKNS

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AKNS, is it really the next Cisco?

AKNS closed @ 11.4

The stock finally closed above 10, which made me start taking notice. The catalyst was a contract with Suntech. This guy thinks it's the next Cisco. It sounds somewhat convincing when you think about what Cisco actually does with computer routers. However, i don't think it's comparable to Cisco, which is very technology intense. But hey, i've been surprised before!

Volume traded yesterday was extremely huge at 15 million shares. The stock never traded with that kind of volume before. I think the stock should more than double this year. It's going higher, but please respect the general market. The bears have sharpened their teeth during Christmas and they are ready to maw.

The market was beaten bad yesterday and i think it's gonna happen again today. I am just taking one day at a time. Btw, if you are still getting your head handed to you by the stock market, it's still a good idea to visit the Waxman.


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Go with the Najarian Bulldog, buy ELON!!!!

ELON closed @ 20.6

ELON specializes in energy efficiency products for homes and commercial buildings. On Friday, FastMoney's Najarian Bulldog claims the options activities indicate much higher prices are gonna happen for this stock in early 2008. I think the Bulldog, a veterans options trader, is right. The stock blew up the 50 and 200day Moving Average just several days ago.

With endorsement from the Bulldog, this stock is going back to 32, especially it has broken thru important ceilings. The stock gapped higher afterhours. Let's wait for a morning dip to get in. Swingtrade or daytrade.

On a different note, i will likely be shorting FSLR once again, after letting it rise in the morning. If the solar correction prevails, FSLR goes to 220 is likely.


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Stock seen as better than gold in 2008

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