Friday, November 30, 2007

how i got started in the stock market

Many years ago, as i was going thru my master and doctorate of health sciences program in college, i got exposed to the markets and immediately developed a general liking of the field. With further study of this intriguing subject i immediately became passionate about the markets and read up on just about every stock market book i can find. I spent hours and hours reading voraciously. I was hooked. I put money in my brokerage account and proceeded to pay for the price of this 'education'. In short, i had my head and arse handed to me. It was a very humbling experience. Trading is one of the most difficult field to master. Trading is also where many people put so little time in learning it yet foolishly expect to be good at it.

For a few years i was like a headless chicken, trading and investing aimlessly with the ultimate outcome of giving my money away. Until i found Michael Parness of Trendfund. That's when everything started coming together and the stock tickers actually made sense to me. I signed up for their full package which included the chatroom, and left after 6 months to a year once i thought i had learned enough. I started understanding why other traders do what they do. The light bulb in my head lit up and i started envisioning the possibilities of developing my own trading systems, using what i learned from Michael as a stepping stone. I am very happy to have learned what i learned. Without that knowledge from the guru, i may have ended up doing something else besides trading the markets. Honest.

Trendfund gives you powerful basics of the art of daytrading (and swingtrading), in an easy to learn fashion. I can honestly tell you that without that basic knowledge, you will likely become minced meat to traders like me and Michael Parness. We will eat you alive in the markets.

If you don't know how to trade, then sign up and learn it. They have a 2-week free trial. Michael is down to earth and not pretentious at all. Once you sign up, there is a section you can access that gives ya powerful rules of the trade. If you genuinely want to eventually trade the markets for a living, i recommend that you go with Michael. Good luck!

Michael's (aka Waxie) Trendfund

Michael is just one trader (and i like his simple yet elegant methods), but if you have made up your mind that you want to be spend your life trading full time and you are ready to absorb all the trading knowledge out there like a sponge, then i highly recommend this site, where you get to learn from hundreds of traders all in one place via video for a ridiculous fee.

Interesting articles:

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Hand me that Bear Frappaccino, please.

Before you read this post, go back and read the previous post if you haven't already. The futures are up nicely this evening. Ben Benanke lit the fire under the futures after his speech that he will essentially lower interest rates to accommodate the economy.

We're growing more and more in love with Ben. He's still a newbie but soon enough when we look back, we'd be really impressed with his foresight. It seems to me that not only is he a great economist, he is also very stock-market-cognizant. The bears hate him but the bulls will grow to love him very much.

I believe that the markets will go crazy green on Friday, leaving the late bears nowhere to run or hide. There is an 80% chance of a shock-n-awe attack on the bears. I hope you are all positioned already on Thursday. The year end rally is officially here! It's really good that we're coming up from very oversold levels.

Stock list: STP, FSLR, SPWR, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG


Interesting articles:

What Will Ben Benanke do?

The Impact of High-Priced Oil on Solar Manufacturers

buy this stock

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way.....

The massive rally today suggests that the bear case for the rest of the year is now over. We will have our Santa Claus Rally! You need to own stocks. Any dips tomorrow, you have to back up the truck.

Anybody who doesn't see the significance of today's rally (and insists on shorting the market) will be obliterated. We got hit with the Wellsfargo writeoff this morning and still the market gapped up huge and ran on rocket fuel. This is very promising for the bulls, as we are now climbing the wall of worry, in a seasonally jovial market friendly time of the year.

Long RIMM, BIDU, SPWR, FSLR, STP! They all have really good charts for a rally higher. FSLR needs to break 220, then back up the truck! RIMM looks awesome. And the market won't leave without the solars.

RIMM closed @121.3
BIDU closed @367.2
SPWR closed @121.1
FSLR closed @215.8
STP closed @74.3

Buy the stocks for a swing or longer term trade. Any dips on these stocks tomorrow, buy them call options to leverage your return.


Interesting articles:

First Solar's rapidly Expanding Economies of Scale

buy this stock

We are not out of the woods just yet.

Closing in the green on Wednesday would be a start. We haven't had two green days back to back in awhile.

The market rise rather dramatically on Tuesday, not so much on any great news because there weren't any. If the short history is any guide, i think we go down on Wednesday. Let's hope that changes. Wednesday is a really important day for the bulls. They have to make it happen. We are still very oversold technically.

We're going down in the morning. Look to short FSLR and FWLT for either a day or swing trade (whichever is likely gonna make you more dough). FSLR looks like it's rolling over. buy this stock or buy that stock

FSLR closed @ 207.6
FWLT closed @ 131.6


Interesting articles:

Big funds are unloading stocks in a big way

History says we're not in a full-fledged bear market

Monday, November 26, 2007

Short FWLT if the market gets worse!

FWLT closed @ 131.20

I gave ya FCX at 107 the week before last and it got decapitated to low of 87. I think FWLT could do the same.

Anymore market deterioration should take this stock to 100. Please watch the SPX (1400 support) and the IWM (73 support). If it looks like we gonna close below those supports, go ahead and wield the sword and decapitate FWLT (short it or buy puts).

The market should gap higher tomorrow for several reasons:
1) We are more oversold than fruitcakes, and we're near support levels on the IWM and SPX.
2) Benanke just today threw out another $8 billion from his helicopter to help out the banks. Everytime he does it, the market rallies the day after.
3) Citibank got some investment from the Middle East.

However, what is important is not the open but, rather, the close. The bulls absolutely need to fight back tomorrow. They must. Or they gonna hear it loud and clear from the bears, "Your arses are ours!" buy this stock


Interesting articles:

Hope potion #1 for the bulls

Hope potion #2 for the bulls

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Got no recommendations for Monday.

With the market in a slippery slope and a huge low volume rally post Thanksgiving, it's hard to give any long recommendation at this time. Was Friday's rally for real? I'll stay prudent and wait and see, even though we are very oversold in the short term.

More likely than not, we go down on Monday. If so, we'll go shorting for fast money. buy this stock

Interesting articles:

>Yingli Green Energy: The New Solar Power?

>Dow Theory Says Sell

Coming Week: Breaking Down

Technorati Profile

Thursday, November 22, 2007

VMW about to have the rug pulled under it?

VMW closed @ 80.6

As long as it closes above 80, longs got nothing to worry about. But if it trades below 79 intraday and closes below 80 we got a problem, as it will most like travel down to the low 60's.

The market is treading on dangerous waters as of Wed's close. The bulls need to fight back these next few days.

Short VMW below 79 or a close below 80, for a day or swing trade.

Longer term i still like this company alot. buy this stock

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

FNM, SPWR, and FSLR going skydiving?

FNM closed @ 28.2
FSLR closed @ 207.3
SPWR closed @ 106.3

I think these folks are going down, at least in the short term.

FNM skydiving without a parachute. $10 may already be a foregone conclusion. Every dip needs to be shorted, and every rally needs to be shorted. Short the stock or buy out of the money puts (dec 25 puts).

FSLR and SPWR, their charts are showing they need a little bit more correction. Every rise can pretty much be shorted for the time being.

This market is horrible and there is negative news just about every day. Hardly any good news, hardly any catalyst to fix this market. Are they even gonna give the bulls a decent Thanksgiving dinner? The market is so oversold short term, a bounce could come any day now. buy this stock

Daytrade or swing trade on SPWR / FSLR. Swingtrade on FNM.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Short FCX, short SPWR!

FCX closed @ 92.5
SPWR closed @ 113.3

FCX looks like it is headed to the low 80. I believe the commodities like FCX are at the end of their bull market and should trade down to sideways for some time. FCX's growth is largely dependent on emerging economies such as China. This piece should help put the Chinese related stocks on a reverse wash spin-cycle: Bearish on Beijing .

SPWR closed terribly. The charts are saying it's going down, at least to the low 100. I like this stock for the longer term but short term, i think the big boys are gonna whack it. (There is a possibility they will whack FSLR as well if FSLR closes negative tomorrow.)

Day or swing trade, whichever makes ya the most money. buy this stock

Saturday, November 17, 2007

VMW and FSLR slated to fly!!!!

VMW closed @ 85.2
FSLR closed @ 212.6

They closed very nicely on Friday. Their charts now say that they are headed higher next week. There is 90% chance they are going higher than friday's close, and there is 75% chance that FSLR will make new highs, imo.

So plan accordingly. I really believe that FSLR will see new highs this coming week, so if ya want to be agressive you can leverage with Dec call options. Even in a weak market such as last week, the bears could not take FSLR below 180 and worst for them the stock closed up not just above 200 but also above 210.

In a bullish market, FSLR will be wallstreet's favorite momemtum stock. This thing can see north of $300 sooner than you think. Solars are still the hottest sector and FSLR is the current leader. The float is relatively low.

Day or swing trade, whichever makes ya the most money. Longer term, these are my two favorite growth stocks. buy this stock

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Listen to the rhythm of the falling RIMM

RIMM closed @ 103

We're in a bearish market and RIMM is primed for a takedown. The technicals favor the downside.

$90 is already a foregone conclusion.

Day or swing trade. buy this stock

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Short VMW, Short FCX, short FSLR

VMW closed @ 87.2
FCX closed @ 104
FSLR closed @ 185.4

These are for very short term (1 or 2 day) trades. I still like VMW and FSLR very very much for the longer term.

Short FSLR below 180, if it gets there it will see 160.

Short FCX right here right now at 104, even better if it gaps higher.

Short VMW. The 92 resistance proves to difficult to bust thru and hold. Retest of 80 very probable. buy this stock

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Come fly with PCLN! Also, BIDU is too cheap!

PCLN closed @108.7

I profiled this stock awhile back at $40. Amazing how far it has come. It should continue to march higher. I see this company being acquired one day.

It is trading at an all-time high.

I think you can get a decent daytrade on it tomorrow. Longer term it should go higher.

----
BIDU closed @ 341.4 (gapping higher by $4 afterhours)

This stock is way too cheap for being the Google of China. It lost 25% in a week. I have a price target of $2,000 on this stock longer term. The stock should rally hard tomorrow morning. buy this stock

Monday, November 12, 2007

Are You Taking The Expressway To Hell?

ATI closed @ 87.5 .

Courtesy of Tim Knight, this is a good short.

Look people, i've warned ya for days now to either daytrade, stay out of the market (sell most or all your stocks), hedge your positions if you got long positions, or to short the market. I cannot think of any more catalyst to rally the market, not one, except if Ben comes out right now right here to save the day. Both the DIA and SPX has broken thru the 200dayMA last week, and NASD is sitting just 6 points above its 200dayMA. DIA and SPX will continue to fall and they will take NASD with them even if it wants to hold up.

We will test the August lows 75% chance. buy this stock

Sunday, November 11, 2007

FSLR can be shorted below 200.

FSLR closed near 207.

With the market this bad, we need to understand that pretty much all stocks will come in. That means any and all momo stocks will be taken to the barn and shot, regardless of how good their fundamentals are.

Day or swing trade. buy this stock

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Short the OIH!

OIH closed @ 189.2

This etf is starting to break down technically, as it closed below the 50dayMA of 190.7 . I also believe that oils and commodities are almost done and will soon enter a bear market. (Hopefully they won't take the entire stock market along with them!)

Short the etf or buy Dec put options.

Let's hope it rallies a little next week before we take on the short. buy this stock

Thursday, November 8, 2007

It's gettin a little hairy out there..

For sure, we can't really rally much the next two weeks. Even if we stop going down from here, it still takes about two weeks or more to repair the damage we just sustained. So that leaves December for a possible rally. But if we go down more from here it gets really tough to get that year end rally. I am now downgrading the gosu rally to 25% chance.

We gonna get a bounce tomorrow morning almost for certain, but who will want to hold stocks into the weekend in this environment. So if and when the market turns negative tomorrow, there's a really good chance it will close decisively negative. Somewhere we will get a bounce next week. It remains to be seen whether it's sustainable.

In short, i recommend reducing margin exposure, or you could be out of the game sooner than you can say, "Wtf!?" Have some cash on the side and definately hedge your portfolio if you're holding your longer term stocks.

The best thing is to simply stay out of the market until the coast is clear. buy this stock

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

FSLR is now the undisputed New King of Wallstreet!!

FSLR closed @ 167 (and gapping up at 206 afterhours)

FSLR absolutely blew away the estimates like no other company has done in years (including GOOG?)! They beat by a huge margin and totally caught analysts and shorts by surprise. Guidance for next year is also huge. The shorts will need to cover and it starts tomorrow. Fortunately for them, the market is bruised pretty badly today and afterhours.

Anything under 200 is a superb buy. Anything above 200 is a great buy! lol . What can i say? FSLR hit the ball out of the park, and the stock is also in the best sector/industry. All the stars are definately aligned for this company, with the exception of the general market. Rest assured, when the market picks back up, FSLR will be headed to $400 faster than the shorts can say, "WTF!". Remember my $200 price target has already been hit. Now, we're headed to the next one, at $500, and then onwards to $1,000.

The float is only 18 million shares, filled with shorties. I'm gonna help make some R.I.P. stones for these hapless fools. Buy buy buy and don't lose those shares! buy this stock

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Solar mania! FSLR, SPWR, STP rocks your world!

I can't stress enough that if your portfolio doesn't contain FSLR, SPWR or STP, please buy some. They're still very cheap at nearly 10 billion market cap. I believe at least two of these three will eventually trade north of 50 billion market cap. Buy 50 shares apiece or 100 shares, but buy something and buy it soon. You already missed over 200% of the run. You simply cannot afford to miss anymore, imo.

Monday, November 5, 2007

CROX is now a really good buy!

CROX closed @ 41.45

The stock hit the important 40 support (which is nearly 50% retracement from the high) this afternoon and bounced. It should go higher tomorrow, as it is now a really good day, swing, and intermediate trade. I don't know about the long term; their shoes are ugly beyond belief and a turnoff to see in public.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

The Beanieville System

Elisha Cuthbert

It seems like a very confusing market right now. I really don't know where the market is headed in the short term, as our banks are getting decapitated left and right. Historically, though, November and December are really good months for the stock market. My astrologer, on the other hand, is very adamant about an ensuing world market crash coming soon. Yikes! lol. I think i might have to fire his arse if it doesn't happen. lol... Rest assured, though, by the middle of next year we will have a super bull run into the 2008 election. I just watch the Nasdaq and let 2750 be my guide. I get defensive (meaning i hedge more or i sell out some long positions) below that number. Otherwise, i wait and see and continue to daytrade. Special case: On big down days, i would nibble on some FSLR, STP or SPWR. This sector is unbelievably resilient. Investors all over the world are buying into alternative energy because they know a superbull in that sector is coming.
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I've been watching the voting poll and it appears we have two extremes in whether you folks want pics of women on this site. Those that do, would you consider having just a link (at the bottome of the post) to the pic or do you prefer it posted the way it's been (without the link)? I'll have another poll up soon. Meanwhile, those that don't want to see any pics while at work, just click onto 'comments' and it will take you to an entirely new screen without any pics at all. Remember you have to refresh the page if you want to see the new comments coming in.
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Looks like we have alot of people joining us very recently. I like to say that you folks are in a really great place, whether you realize this or not. I'm not just a full time daytrader and investor, i'm also very involved with finding novel approaches to the market, simple enough for folks with slightly above average intelligence can comprehend and execute successfully. In short, i've been looking for the holy grail. They say there's no such thing as a holy grail in the markets; yet they spew forth the same bullship that 90% of traders end up learning and following, when statistics have shown that 90% of traders will fail and their money will go to the other 10%. Isn't there something wrong with that picture? The point i'm trying to tell ya is that you should know what the other 90% of traders know, but you should be doing something that others (the other 90%) don't do when it comes to trading. I'm not talking about inside information, which are for cheaters, i'm talking about creating your own system adapting to your own style. I also think you should try to be open to many systems (i.e. Astrology, Elliot Waves, etc.) When you become open you generally end up picking up alot of good stuff for yourself. You want to be that 10%, not that 90%.

I am currently testing a new sytem ("The Beanieville System") of my own right now. I've mentally worked out the strategy and now am putting it to use. I just started another account with $30,000 and trying to parlay that into a networth of $1 million within 5 years (AFTER paying taxes annually and paying for typical personally expenses daily, weekly and monthly), all WITHOUT using risky futures, options (except for hedging), penny stocks, and stocks under $20. That is a monumental task if you think about it! If this can be done using simple methods, then certainly one would have to consider that a holy grail. If that can be done, then anyone with above average intelligence can, with only $30k, can support themselves full time trading and at the same time increase their networth. Wish me luck.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Do you SOHU?

Megan Fox

SOHU closed @ 60.7

The company announced a blowout quarter last week and the stock has been on a tear, up about 50%. Growth is expected to continue. SOHU is only a 2.25 billion market capitalization company. So there could be alot of upside.

Longer term, this is going higher. I'm giving it a $100 price target next year.

Buy buy buy!